STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS.
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 NNE AMA 10 W TCC 25 ENE LVS 35 NNE ALS 4FC 25 SSE CYS
40 ESE SNY 45 SE GLD 30 NE LBL 40 NNE AMA.
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 NNW BML 30 NNE PSF 20 W POU 30 SW IPT 25 E BFD 35 NNE ROC.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW LRD TPL
20 E GLH 10 ENE HSV 65 NW AHN 25 E AVL 25 SE PSK 30 NNW SHD
15 W MGW 45 SW BMG 20 NNE MKO 20 NNW BGS 35 SSW P07 ...CONT...
50 S DMN ONM 45 NE 4SL 45 SSE GUC 30 N RWL 30 N IDA 60 S MSO
65 SSW CTB 35 W HVR 70 WNW MLS 25 NNE 81V 50 W VTN 30 NNE LNK
15 NNW BRL 40 S AZO 20 ESE GRR 30 SW OSH 60 S DLH ELO.
...NORTHEAST...
40-50 KT WLY MID LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ASSOCIATED WITH SLOW MOVING TROUGH FORECAST TO EJECT
NEWD INTO QUEBEC. COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND SHOULD
EXTEND FROM NRN/CENTRAL NY SWWD INTO CENTRAL PA/OH BY LATE IN THE
DAY. ETA AND ETAKF FORECAST 60+F SURFACE DEW POINTS AHEAD OF THIS
SURFACE FEATURE AND SUGGEST AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. EXPECT ONE OR
MORE LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE NEAR APPROACHING SURFACE
TROUGH DURING THE MID AFTERNOON AND MOVE EWD INTO THE EVENING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SHEAR IS WEAK FOR SUPERCELLS...HOWEVER
25-35 KT OF SFC-6 KM SHEAR WILL STILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED LINE
SEGMENTS/MULTICELLS WITH PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS OF DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL.
...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...
GENERALLY WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF
THIS AREA SUNDAY...AS REGION REMAINS DISPLACED FROM MAIN BAND OF
WESTERLIES. MCS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING OVER SRN NEB/NRN KS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WHICH IS FORECAST BY ALL THE SHORT RANGE
MODELS TO PERSIST AS IT SHIFTS SLOWLY ESEWD INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THOUGH A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BECOME MODERATE TO
STRONGLY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY...VERY WEAK SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION AND RESULTANT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT UPSLOPE ESELY BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FROM THE OK/TX PANHANDLES INTO ERN
CO SHOULD ALLOW MODERATE INSTABILITY TO FORM OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
REGION BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. THOUGH MID LEVEL FLOW IS NOT STRONG
...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO VEER SUFFICIENTLY IN THE VERTICAL FOR 25-
35 KT OF SFC-6 KM SHEAR. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT MULTICELL CLUSTERS
AND POSSIBLY A FEW SUPERCELLS AS STORMS DEVELOP SEWD OFF HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH THE EVENING.
..EVANS.. 06/28/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1730Z
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