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Jun-28-2003 0800 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Categorical Graphic
0800 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
      
 
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0800 Day 2 Prob Graphic
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   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS.
   
   VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   40 NNE AMA 10 W TCC 25 ENE LVS 35 NNE ALS 4FC 25 SSE CYS
   40 ESE SNY 45 SE GLD 30 NE LBL 40 NNE AMA.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   35 NNW BML 30 NNE PSF 20 W POU 30 SW IPT 25 E BFD 35 NNE ROC.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW LRD TPL
   20 E GLH 10 ENE HSV 65 NW AHN 25 E AVL 25 SE PSK 30 NNW SHD
   15 W MGW 45 SW BMG 20 NNE MKO 20 NNW BGS 35 SSW P07 ...CONT...
   50 S DMN ONM 45 NE 4SL 45 SSE GUC 30 N RWL 30 N IDA 60 S MSO
   65 SSW CTB 35 W HVR 70 WNW MLS 25 NNE 81V 50 W VTN 30 NNE LNK
   15 NNW BRL 40 S AZO 20 ESE GRR 30 SW OSH 60 S DLH ELO.
   
   
   ...NORTHEAST...
   40-50 KT WLY MID LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE GREAT
   LAKES REGION ASSOCIATED WITH SLOW MOVING TROUGH FORECAST TO EJECT
   NEWD INTO QUEBEC.  COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
   SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND SHOULD
   EXTEND FROM NRN/CENTRAL NY SWWD INTO CENTRAL PA/OH BY LATE IN THE
   DAY.  ETA AND ETAKF FORECAST 60+F SURFACE DEW POINTS AHEAD OF THIS
   SURFACE FEATURE AND SUGGEST AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
   DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  EXPECT ONE OR
   MORE LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE NEAR APPROACHING SURFACE
   TROUGH DURING THE MID AFTERNOON AND MOVE EWD INTO THE EVENING. 
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SHEAR IS WEAK FOR SUPERCELLS...HOWEVER
   25-35 KT OF SFC-6 KM SHEAR WILL STILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED LINE
   SEGMENTS/MULTICELLS WITH PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS OF DAMAGING WINDS
   AND LARGE HAIL.
   
   ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...
   GENERALLY WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF
   THIS AREA SUNDAY...AS REGION REMAINS DISPLACED FROM MAIN BAND OF
   WESTERLIES.  MCS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING OVER SRN NEB/NRN KS AT THE
   BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WHICH IS FORECAST BY ALL THE SHORT RANGE
   MODELS TO PERSIST AS IT SHIFTS SLOWLY ESEWD INTO THE AFTERNOON. 
   THOUGH A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BECOME MODERATE TO
   STRONGLY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY...VERY WEAK SHEAR IS
   EXPECTED TO LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION AND RESULTANT SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM THREAT.  HOWEVER...PERSISTENT UPSLOPE ESELY BOUNDARY
   LAYER FLOW INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FROM THE OK/TX PANHANDLES INTO ERN
   CO SHOULD ALLOW MODERATE INSTABILITY TO FORM OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
   REGION BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.  THOUGH MID LEVEL FLOW IS NOT STRONG
   ...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO VEER SUFFICIENTLY IN THE VERTICAL FOR 25-
   35 KT OF SFC-6 KM SHEAR.  THIS SHOULD SUPPORT MULTICELL CLUSTERS
   AND POSSIBLY A FEW SUPERCELLS AS STORMS DEVELOP SEWD OFF HIGHER
   TERRAIN THROUGH THE EVENING.
    
   ..EVANS.. 06/28/03
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1730Z
        
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