STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS.
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 NW GRB 10 E MSN 15 NNW OMA 20 NW OFK 20 N MHE 45 NE ATY
45 S IWD 35 NW GRB.
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
60 ESE ANJ 30 SW OSC 50 NNW LAF 10 N STJ 35 SSE IML 30 ESE SNY
20 SE AIA 50 S PIR 40 S Y22 45 E DIK RRT.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW FHU 35 SW COS
25 SW BFF 45 SSW PHP 35 SW REJ 45 S LVM 15 NNW BTM 25 W GTF
10 SSE GDV 25 E MOT 80 NE DVL ...CONT... 95 ENE APN 25 NE MTC
20 NNW MIE 30 ESE SLN 40 ESE LBL 60 SSE CVS 50 WSW MRF.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S LRD 20 NNE AUS
15 S LIT 15 SSE TYS 30 SSE PKB AVP 20 W GFL 10 W MSS.
...NRN/CNTRL PLAINS-UPPER MS VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES...
UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE NRN
PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE LEAD SHORTAVE TROUGH NOW OVER ND
WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY MORNING. AS
THIS OCCURS...THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EWD AND BECOME ORIENTED
NE-SW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...EXTENDING FROM CNTRL MN SW THROUGH
SD BY AFTERNOON.
ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN PLUME OF
STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER THE MOIST PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
MLCAPES FROM 3000 TO 4000 J/KG FROM PARTS OF ERN SD/NE EWD INTO THE
MN/IA AND WI. MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY BE ONGOING OVER PARTS OF
WI INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MI IN WARM ADVECTION REGIME
ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD EVENTUALLY SPREAD EWD INTO CANADA BY AFTERNOON. OTHER STORMS
MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS SWRN ND/NWRN SD AS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ENHANCES LIFT IN POST FRONTAL REGION WHERE STRONG FLOW/DEEP SHEAR
WILL EXIST. LOW LEVEL ELY COMPONENT COULD MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY IN THE POST FRONTAL AREA FOR AN ONGOING SEVERE
THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT CONTINUES EWD THROUGH SRN ND AND
PARTS OF SD.
PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED UNTIL MID AFTERNOON
WHEN LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE
HEATING SHOULD WEAKEN THE CAP IN VICINITY OF FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF
MN SWWD INTO SD/NE. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
VICINITY OF FRONT AS THE CAP WEAKENS. STRONG MIDDLE AND UPPER FLOW
ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN 0-6 KM SHEAR SUFFICIENT
FOR SUPERCELLS...BUT ACTIVITY MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO ONE OR
MORE MCSS. DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREATS...
THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE. A LIMITING
FACTOR FOR TORNADOES COULD BE THE EXPECTED WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW
DURING TIME OF PEAK HEATING.
..DIAL.. 07/02/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0800Z
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