DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0218 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2003
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM FWA
SDF DYR LIT HOT ADM GAG P28 OJC ALO 10 S RHI ESC GRR FWA
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 SSE GBN EED DAG
MER RBL MFR BNO OWY U24 U28 EGE LAR CDR MHN HSI OMA FRM RWF JMS 65
NNW DVL ...CONT... 15 NW EFK BML PWM ...CONT... 25 ESE BPT DAL LBB
ROW ELP
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ON FRIDAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER/MIDDLE MS VALLEY INTO KS/OK....
UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH BROAD BAND OF 40+ KNOT NORTHWESTERLY MID
LEVEL WINDS FROM MT/WY TO AR/MO. MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM LOW OVER WI ACROSS EASTERN IA AND NORTHERN
MO INTO SOUTHERN KS. REMNANT CONVECTION FROM DAY1 PERIOD WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION THAT MAY LIMIT
DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...AIRMASS AHEAD OF FRONT WILL BE QUITE
MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S WITH AT LEAST POCKETS OF VERY
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS /MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG/. RELATIVELY WEAK CAP
AND FORCING ALONG FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF
FRONT FROM CENTRAL WI INTO SOUTHEAST KS/NORTHEAST OK. MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS THROUGHOUT THIS REGION SHOW FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...SUGGESTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CELLS AS THEY SPREAD
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF AR/MO/IL/IND DURING THE EVENING.
..HART.. 07/31/2003
...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1730Z
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