SPC AC 180648
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0148 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2003
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE
DVL 20 WSW TVF 40 WNW HIB 40 W DLH 20 WSW MKT 35 NW OMA 45 WNW CNK
55 NE GCK 55 ENE LAA 35 WSW GLD 35 E SNY 30 S MBG 45 SE DVL
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW GBN 50 ENE BLH
30 W IGM 55 WSW SGU 25 E P38 25 ESE 4HV 45 NNE CEZ 35 E GUC 30 ENE
4FC 50 N CYS 25 W RAP 30 SSE DIK 60 NE MOT
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 E MQT 20 SW VOK 25
S DSM 15 WNW STJ 35 E P28 30 NNE GAG 15 SSE DHT 10 SW HOB 20 SE P07
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE CRP CLL 30 NNW
SHV 10 SW PBF 10 SW MEM 25 S TYS 35 SW ILM
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MS
VALLEY...
WEAK UPPER LOW THAT HAS MOVED INTO WRN WY WILL BY TUESDAY BE TURNED
TOWARD THE E OUT INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF NE/SD AS WLYS INCREASE
ALONG CANADIAN/NWRN U.S. BORDER. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER NRN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A LOW LEVEL SWLY JET FROM CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS NEWD INTO UPPER MS VALLEY.
WHILE SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE RATHER WEAK AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM
MOVING INTO HIGH PLAINS...STRONG HEATING AND CONTINUED ADVECTION OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MDT TO STG INSTABILITY DEVELOPING
BY TUE AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL PLAINS NEWD INTO UPPER MS VALLEY.
THE MID LEVEL COOLING ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER SYSTEM COUPLED WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 90S TO OVER 100F WILL RESULT
IN LAPSE RATES OF 8-9 C/KM WHICH ALONG WITH MLCAPES FROM 2000-3000
J/KG WILL SUPPORT STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
EVEN THOUGH WELL DEFINED BOUNDARIES FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION ARE
NOT EXPECTED...THE CAP WILL WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR STORMS TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER HIGH PLAINS NEWD INTO UPPER
MS VALLEY BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.
DOMINANT SEVERE MODE INITIALLY SHOULD BE PULSE MULTI-CELLULAR GIVEN
THE RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR...HOWEVER CONVECTION COULD EVOLVE INTO AN
MCS BY EVENING VICINITY LOW LEVEL JET THAT WILL EXTEND FROM CENTRAL
NEB INTO SRN MN.
.
..HALES.. 08/18/2003
...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1730Z
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