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Aug-18-2003 0800 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
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0800 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
      
 
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   SPC AC 180648
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0148 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2003
   
   VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE
   DVL 20 WSW TVF 40 WNW HIB 40 W DLH 20 WSW MKT 35 NW OMA 45 WNW CNK
   55 NE GCK 55 ENE LAA 35 WSW GLD 35 E SNY 30 S MBG 45 SE DVL
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW GBN 50 ENE BLH
   30 W IGM 55 WSW SGU 25 E P38 25 ESE 4HV 45 NNE CEZ 35 E GUC 30 ENE
   4FC 50 N CYS 25 W RAP 30 SSE DIK 60 NE MOT
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 E MQT 20 SW VOK 25
   S DSM 15 WNW STJ 35 E P28 30 NNE GAG 15 SSE DHT 10 SW HOB 20 SE P07
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE CRP CLL 30 NNW
   SHV 10 SW PBF 10 SW MEM 25 S TYS 35 SW ILM
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MS
   VALLEY...
   
   WEAK UPPER LOW THAT HAS MOVED INTO WRN WY WILL BY TUESDAY BE TURNED
   TOWARD THE E OUT INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF NE/SD AS WLYS INCREASE
   ALONG CANADIAN/NWRN U.S. BORDER. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER NRN
   PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A LOW LEVEL SWLY JET FROM CENTRAL
   HIGH PLAINS NEWD INTO UPPER MS VALLEY.
   
   WHILE SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE RATHER WEAK  AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM
   MOVING INTO HIGH PLAINS...STRONG HEATING AND CONTINUED ADVECTION OF
   LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MDT TO STG INSTABILITY DEVELOPING 
   BY TUE AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL PLAINS NEWD INTO UPPER MS VALLEY.
   
   THE MID LEVEL COOLING ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER SYSTEM COUPLED WITH
   SURFACE TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 90S TO OVER 100F WILL RESULT
   IN LAPSE RATES OF 8-9 C/KM WHICH ALONG WITH MLCAPES FROM 2000-3000
   J/KG WILL SUPPORT STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. 
   
   EVEN THOUGH WELL DEFINED BOUNDARIES FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION ARE
   NOT EXPECTED...THE CAP WILL WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR STORMS TO
   DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER HIGH PLAINS NEWD INTO UPPER
   MS VALLEY BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.
   
   DOMINANT SEVERE MODE INITIALLY SHOULD BE PULSE MULTI-CELLULAR GIVEN
   THE RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR...HOWEVER CONVECTION COULD EVOLVE INTO AN
   MCS BY EVENING VICINITY LOW LEVEL JET THAT WILL EXTEND FROM CENTRAL
   NEB INTO SRN MN. 
   .
   
   ..HALES.. 08/18/2003
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1730Z
        
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