SPC AC 220725
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0225 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2003
   
   VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW CZZ 40 SW DAG
   35 WNW DRA 70 SW ELY 35 NNW EKO 95 NNW WMC 55 NNE LMT 25 E SLE 35
   NNW 4OM ...CONT... 50 E MQT 70 N EAU 10 WNW FSD 30 NNW BBW 35 SW MCK
   45 NW GCK 25 SSW DDC 40 WNW PNC 40 SSW TBN 45 ENE PAH SSU 30 SSW WAL
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY LARGE ANTICYCLONE
   ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS/MS RIVER VALLEY REGIONS
   SATURDAY.  THIS WILL MAINTAIN MODEST ELY FLOW ACROSS THE SRN
   ATLANTIC INTO THE SRN PLAINS/SWRN DESERTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND
   DISPLACE PROGRESSIVE WLY FLOW ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND CANADIAN
   PARIES.  IN ADDITION...DEEP TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EWD
   ACROSS THE NORTHEAST IN WAKE OF SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW MOVING INTO
   THE REGION.
   
   ...NRN PLAINS/NRN MS RIVER VALLEY...
   FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES AND
   LIFT NEWD INTO CANADA EARLY IN THE PERIOD...GLANCING THE NRN PLAINS
   STATES.  SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL LIKEWISE
   SHIFT EWD INTO ERN ND AND EXTEND SSWWD INTO CENTRAL/SWRN SD BY LATE
   IN THE DAY.  A MOIST AND VERY WARM BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY BE IN
   PLACE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND
   AFTERNOON HIGHS OVER 90F.  HOWEVER...WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
   MAINTAIN A STRONG CAP...AND LIMIT CONVECTIVE THREAT.  THOUGH
   NOCTURNAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG LLJ ABOVE CAP...PRIMARY
   THREAT OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY
   WHERE STRONG HEATING AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ARE ABLE
   TO ERODE CAP.  ENSUING DEVELOPMENT WILL PRODUCE A THREAT OF
   STRONG/GUSTY SURFACE WINDS.
   
   ...SRN ATLANTIC INTO THE TN RIVER VALLEY AND SRN PLAINS...
   SURFACE FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SAGGING SWD ACROSS
   THIS BROAD REGION DURING THE PERIOD...WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE
   PERSISTING AHEAD OF IT.  THOUGH MEAN FLOW WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
   WEAK...STRONG INSTABILITY SUGGESTS CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ANYWHERE ALONG THE FRONT WHERE
   CONVERGENCE CAN FOCUS PERSISTENT DEVELOPMENT.  ISOLATED
   STRONG/SEVERE DOWNBURSTS WILL ACCOMPANY RESULTANT THUNDERSTORMS INTO
   THE MID EVENING.
   
   ...SWRN DESERTS...
   MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A WEAK IMPULSE WILL SHIFT WWD INTO AZ
   DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WHICH WOULD INCREASE CONVECTIVE
   COVERAGE/THREAT OVER THE SWRN DESERTS GIVEN INFLUX OF RELATIVELY
   MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR NOW IN PLACE. IN ADDITION...ELY MID LEVEL
   WINDS SHOULD INCREASE WITH THIS FEATURE AND ENHANCE ORGANIZATIONAL
   POTENTIAL AND WWD MOTIONS TO STORMS MOVING OFF HIGHER TERRAIN. 
   SLIGHT RISK MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS... THOUGH UNCERTAINTIES
   REMAIN TOO HIGH ATTM.
   
   ..EVANS.. 08/22/2003
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1730Z