SPC AC 021718
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1218 PM CDT THU OCT 02 2003
   
   VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW FHU 25 E PHX 35
   ENE IGM 40 NW P38 55 ENE U31 35 N EKO 60 SW MLD 30 SE RKS 30 W FCL
   15 N TAD 10 E CAO 45 SSW P28 50 W CNU 35 SE CID 40 SSW CMX 85 NW CMX
   ...CONT... 20 ENE MSS 40 ENE ART 10 NW SYR 30 NE JHW 20 E HLG 25 SW
   UNI 65 E BWG 25 NNW LIT 40 W ADM 50 SE LBB 20 S INK 60 S MRF.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N PIE 40 SE DAB.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   NEXT STRONG UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SWD ACROSS NWRN ONTARIO WILL DIG
   INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY...REINFORCING THE LARGE COLD
   LONGWAVE TROUGH SITUATED ACROSS THE ERN PARTS OF THE NATION.  COLD
   FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES 
   AND INTO THE OH/TN VLYS AND CNTRL PLAINS BY FRIDAY NIGHT. 
   MEANWHILE...A COLD POCKET ASSOCIATED WITH A MIDLEVEL LOW WILL
   CONTINUE TO SETTLE SEWD FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE SRN ROCKIES
   WITH WEAKER IMPULSES EJECTING EWD FROM THE DESERT SW INTO THE SRN
   PLAINS.
   
   ...SRN PLAINS NEWD INTO THE OH VLY/GREAT LAKES REGION...
   A FEW ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   NERN OK/SWRN MO/NWRN AR/SERN KS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WHERE STRONGEST
   LOW-MIDLEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION COINCIDES WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
   RATES. NOSE OF THE WEAKENING LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD SHIFT INTO THE
   LOWER OH VLY BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND TSTMS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN
   AS THEY TRANSLATE ENEWD.
   
   FARTHER N...ISOLD TSTMS MAY BE DEVELOPING AROUND 12 UTC FRIDAY
   ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY ALONG LEADING EDGE OF STRONG ASCENT
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH/COLD FRONT.  MOISTURE PROFILES
   WILL BE RATHER MEAGER THIS FAR NORTH...BUT PRIND THAT THERE WILL BE
   JUST ENOUGH POTENTIAL INSTABILITY FOR AN ISOLD TSTMS THREAT ACROSS
   THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OH VLY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT AS
   THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  
   
   ...GREAT BASIN/SWRN STATES...
   A DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/SWRN STATES
   WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR RATHER WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY
   SATURDAY.  HIGHEST TSTM PROBABILITIES WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS THE
   FOUR CORNERS REGION WITHIN EXIT REGION OF MIDLEVEL JET AND ACROSS
   THE ERN NV/WRN UT AREA WHERE COLDEST MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
   EXIST BENEATH THE CORE OF MIDLEVEL LOW.  VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
   WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR LOW-END SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ACROSS THE
   RIM COUNTRY...BUT INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE MINIMAL...LIMITING
   OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL.
   
   ..RACY.. 10/02/2003
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0800Z