SPC AC 041727
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT SAT OCT 04 2003
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW CTY 40 NNW
DAB.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW 63S 45 W PUW 45
SW S80 75 NW SUN 50 NE MLD 35 WNW 4FC 4FC 30 NW GAG 25 SSW PNC 20 W
HRO 30 NNW DYR 20 SW CSV 35 ESE CHA 30 SE RMG 10 NNW 0A8 15 SE ESF
45 SE AUS 15 SSE DRT ...CONT... 10 SE DUG 10 SSW DMN 30 W ALM 25 W
4CR 30 NW ABQ 35 N BCE 25 ESE WMC 15 W 4LW 50 N LMT 40 SE SLE 20 NE
BLI.
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN US WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AND
MOVE EWD ON DAY 2. A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS CNTRL
TX EXTENDING EWD ACROSS NRN LA...MS...SRN AL AND SRN GA.
...TX/LA/SRN AR...
ANALYSIS SHOWS A PLUME OF SFC DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S F ACROSS CNTRL TX. SLY FLOW WILL TRANSPORT THIS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE NEWD TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SFC HEATING SUNDAY WILL CREATE
MODERATE INSTABILITY IN THIS REGION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHERE SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 30 KT. THIS COMBINED WITH
MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.0 C/KM SUGGEST A MARGINAL
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY EXIST DURING A BRIEF WINDOW
NEAR PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER...THE THREAT IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT A
SLIGHT RISK ATTM.
..BROYLES.. 10/04/2003
...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0800Z
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