SPC AC 031731
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1131 AM CST MON NOV 03 2003
   
   VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW HUM 50 WSW CBM
   15 NW TUP 25 W DYR 20 SW JBR 10 WSW HOT 25 ENE PRX 40 N MWL 20 SSE
   LTS 20 ENE P28 35 NNW OMA 40 NW AUW 25 ESE MQT ...CONT... 30 NNE ART
   20 SSW AVP 25 SW CHO 30 SSW CLT 50 ESE MCN 30 NE GNV 30 NNW DAB.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH AXIS THAT HAS PERSISTED ACROSS THE WEST
   OVER THE PAST WEEK WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THIS PERIOD AS
   A STRONG LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...EMBEDDED WITHIN FAST SWLY
   FLOW...TRACKS FROM THE PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. LIFT ASSOCIATED
   WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL INDUCE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG INTENSE
   FRONTAL ZONE ALSO SITUATED FROM THE PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. AS
   THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES FROM IA/MO TO MI ON TUESDAY...THE
   ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWING ESEWD FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE MID
   MS VALLEY AND SHOULD BE SITUATED FROM DETROIT TO DALLAS BY EARLY
   WEDNESDAY MORNING.
   
   FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...A LOW OF SUBTROPICAL ORIGIN WILL CONTINUE
   TO LIFT NWD ACROSS THE NCNTRL GULF COAST AND THEN OVER THE DEEP
   SOUTH AND SRN APPALACHIANS. MODELS SUGGEST THIS FEATURE LOSES ITS
   IDENTITY WITH TIME AS THE CIRCULATION ENCOUNTERS CONFLUENT MID LEVEL
   FLOW BETWEEN APPROACHING GREAT LAKES TROUGH AND WRN ATLANTIC UPPER
   RIDGE.
   
   ...SRN PLAINS/OZARKS...
   FORCING ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO IMPINGE UPON A
   MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS FROM SWRN MO SWWD INTO
   ECNTRL OK BY AFTERNOON. ENSEMBLE FCSTS INDICATE A GOOD PROBABILITY
   THAT A NARROW AXIS OF AT LEAST 1000 J/KG MUCAPE WILL DEVELOP ALONG
   AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z. WHILE THERE IS SOME
   POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD PREFRONTAL STORMS TO INITIATE GIVEN SUFFICIENT
   HEATING/MIXING AND WEAK CAP...STRONGER FORCING FOR DEEP ASCENT
   THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER JUST BEHIND THE FRONT SUGGESTS THAT A
   GREATER CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL OCCUR WITH FROPA. A
   RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR IN SPACE AND TIME WILL EXIST FOR ONE OR
   TWO HAIL EVENTS...AND POSSIBLY A STRONG WIND GUST...FROM CNTRL OK
   EAST TO THE OZARKS DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
   
   ...MIDWEST TO GREAT LAKES...
   PRIMARILY ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING EARLY TUESDAY
   ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT...AND NEAR DEVELOPING FRONTAL
   WAVE...FROM NRN MO THROUGH ERN IA. DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE
   RATES DUE TO MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILES...STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING 
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTENSE FRONTAL ZONE AND THE DEEPENING LOW
   SHOULD MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED THUNDER FROM THE MS RIVER
   OF IA/IL ENEWD ACROSS SERN WI AND MUCH OF LOWER MI THROUGH THE
   PERIOD. WEAK INSTABILITY IN THIS CORRIDOR IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE
   THREAT OF LARGE HAIL.
   
   ...SOUTH TO OH VALLEY...
   GENERALLY WEAK CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS UPPER IMPULSE DEAMPLIFIES
   ACROSS THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE
   INTO INTENSIFYING WARM CONVEYOR BELT LATE IN THE PERIOD FROM TN
   VALLEY NWD TO OH VALLEY SHOULD AID TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THIS
   AXIS. LITTLE INDICATION OF ANY SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS
   LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY REMAIN QUITE MARGINAL.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 11/03/2003
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0800Z