SPC AC 101737
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1137 AM CST MON NOV 10 2003
   
   VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW PRB 25 ENE BFL
   DAG 20 SW IPL.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ROA 25 S BWG 55 NNE
   LIT 25 ESE DUA 35 S OKC 25 N END 55 SSW IRK 50 SSE CGX 20 NW YNG 30
   ESE MGW ROA.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...LOWER/MID MS VALLEY THROUGH OH VALLEY...
   
   IMPULSE OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL DROP SEWD INTO BASE OF
   UPPER TROUGH...RESULTING IN AMPLIFICATION OF THIS FEATURE OVER THE
   NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY TUESDAY. LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW
   OVER ERN MT WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY TUESDAY.
   VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN
   SURFACE BOUNDARY SHIFTING SEWD TO EXTEND FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
   SWWD THROUGH SRN KS BY EARLY TUESDAY.
   
   INCREASING HEIGHT GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH
   WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG SWLY DEEP LAYER FLOW AND SHEAR FROM THE
   SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE OH VALLEY TUESDAY. PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF
   AIR WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL BEGIN RETURNING NEWD
   THROUGH THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS
   VALLEY WITH 50S FARTHER NE INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE INCREASING LOW
   LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION DURING
   THE DAY. HOWEVER...MARGINAL LAPSE RATES AND AREAS OF CLOUDS FROM THE
   MS VALLEY THROUGH THE OH VALLEYS WILL LIKELY LIMIT MUCAPE TO AOB 800
   J/KG. STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE DAY IN ZONE OF WARM
   ADVECTION ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY NEWD
   THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WITH STRONG SWLY DEEP
   LAYER FLOW AND SHEAR SUGGEST STORMS WILL TRY TO ORGANIZE WITH
   POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
   DAMAGING WIND. HOWEVER...EXPECTED LIMITED INSTABILITY RELATIVE TO
   AMOUNT OF SHEAR SUGGESTS IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO MAINTAIN STRONG
   UPRIGHT CONVECTION. THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK
   IN LATER OUTLOOKS IF IT BECOMES EVIDENT THAT MORE INSTABILITY WILL
   DEVELOP THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
   
   STRONGER CAP WITHIN STEEPER LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY LIMIT
   INITIATION FARTHER SW OVER PARTS OF OK UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT...WHEN
   ELEVATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN FRONTAL ZONE.
   
   ..DIAL.. 11/10/2003
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0800Z