SPC AC 161723
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1123 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2003
   
   VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
   
   THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW
   LFK 25 NE CLL 25 ESE ACT 30 SSW DAL 20 NE DUA 20 NW FYV 35 ENE SGF
   20 SE VIH 45 SSW BLV 20 ENE CGI 35 SSW PAH 20 S DYR 25 SSW GLH 40
   WNW ESF 40 SSE LFK 55 SSW LFK.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE
   CRP 20 NE COT 45 W HDO 30 NW JCT 35 W END 30 N MHK 35 W DSM 45 ENE
   ALO 20 E JVL 35 SSW SBN 20 ESE IND 25 WSW SDF 10 NE BNA 35 SW LUL 40
   WSW HUM.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW FCL CAG 20 SSW
   RKS 20 N BPI 25 WNW COD 40 E BIL 35 NNE 4BQ 45 ESE REJ 30 SSE PHP 40
   WSW MHN 25 S SNY 15 WSW FCL.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW P07 45 NNW BGS
   35 E HLC 30 WNW OTG 15 W INL ...CONT... 100 ENE APN 15 E FNT FDY 45
   W UNI 20 E HTS 25 NW LYH 20 NE ORF ...CONT... 15 SSW CRE 45 SSE AHN
   15 NNW CSG 20 WSW TOI 25 WSW PNS.
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN
   MO...AR...SERN OK...ERN TX...NRN LA...FAR NW MS AND FAR WRN TN...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND SERN
   TX...CNTRL OK...ERN KS...NRN MO...SERN IA...IL...WRN IND...WRN
   KY...WRN TN...MS AND LA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE LARGE UPPER-TROUGH OVER THE WRN US WILL ORGANIZE AND MOVE EWD
   INTO THE GREAT PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
   WILL MOVE ACROSS TX AND OK INTO THE OZARKS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD
   ACROSS AREAS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS MTNS.
   
   ...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY...
   SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN
   PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING
   UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL ORGANIZE AND MOVE SWIFTLY EWD
   ACROSS W TX BY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION SHOULD FOCUS ALONG A PREFRONTAL
   TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS CNTRL TX EXTENDING NWD INTO CNTRL OK DURING
   THE DAY. AS THE CONVECTIVE LINE MOVES EWD...IT WILL ENCOUNTER
   INCREASING SFC MOISTURE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S F ACROSS
   NE TX AND SERN OK. ALTHOUGH SFC HEATING WILL BE LIMITED BY
   WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER...MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD REACH 500 TO 1000 J/KG
   ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION. THE LINE SHOULD ORGANIZE AS IT MOVES EWD
   INTO INCREASING INSTABILITY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE AMOUNT OF
   INSTABILITY THAT MATERIALIZES WILL DETERMINE THE AMOUNT OF SEVERE
   WEATHER COVERAGE. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND
   50 KT WILL ENHANCE A WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY WITH BOWING
   SEGMENTS WITHIN THE LINE. IN ADDITION...STRONG 0-1 KM SHEAR AND LOW
   LCL HEIGHTS WILL FAVOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. THE GREATEST
   TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST WITH SHALLOW SUPERCELLS WITHIN BREAKS IN
   THE LINE THAT FORM IN LOCALLY HIGHER AREAS OF INSTABILITY. A STRONG
   TORNADO OR TWO MAY OCCUR IN THE AREA INCLUDING SRN MO...AR...NRN
   LA...SERN OK AND ERN TX CONSIDERING THE FORECAST POSITION OF THE
   LOW-LEVEL JET AND UPPER-TROUGH.
   
   ...UPPER MIDWEST AND OH VALLEY...
   MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AS THE
   UPPER-TROUGH SHIFTS EWD INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY. SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD
   INCREASE INTO THE 50S F ACROSS ERN NEB...IA AND IL BY AFTERNOON.
   STRONG CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH SHOULD
   AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NERN KS AND ERN NEB IN THE
   AFTERNOON. AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
   WILL EXPAND AND MOVE EWD ACROSS IA AND INTO WI AND IL DURING THE
   EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL.
   HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE STRONG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR IS
   FORECAST TO BE AROUND 50 KT. THIS SUGGESTS ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
   WILL BE POSSIBLE. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   UPPER-TROUGH WILL AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CONVECTIVE LINE DURING
   THE EVENING WITH A POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
   FOR WIND DAMAGE WILL EXIST WITH BOWING SEGMENTS WITHIN THE LINE
   ACROSS SERN IA...NRN MO AND IL.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 11/16/2003
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0800Z