SPC AC 071712
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1112 AM CST SUN DEC 07 2003
   
   VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E PGA GJT 4FC GCK
   HUT OJC COU 45 ESE VIH LIT ELD 35 S SHV 35 NNE CLL ACT DUA LTS 10
   WNW AMA 45 N LVS 55 S GNT SOW INW 10 E PGA.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   SPLIT FLOW REGIME PERSISTS IN MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES ACROSS THE
   EASTERN PACIFIC AND NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF NORTH AMERICA.  MODELS
   INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES
   REMAINING PROGRESSIVE. THIS INCLUDES TWO VIGOROUS SOUTHERN BRANCH
   SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...ONE DIGGING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO
   THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WHILE UPSTREAM SYSTEM DIGS TOWARD THE
   NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST.
   
   SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN WEAK AND SUPPRESSED ACROSS THE
   LOWER LATITUDES...WHILE ONLY LIMITED MODIFICATION AND RETURN FLOW OF
   MOISTURE OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO OCCURS ON WESTERN PERIPHERY
   OF SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTING TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST.  AS A RESULT...
   DESTABILIZATION AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL AGAIN BE
   RATHER MINIMAL.
   
   ...GREAT BASIN/SOUTHERN PLATEAU INTO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
   DESPITE LACK OF INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL
   PACIFIC...BELT OF MID/HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE IS EVIDENT ON SOUTHERN
   PERIPHERY OF SOUTHERN BRANCH JET...EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NEAR
   30N INTO THE FOUR CORNERS STATES.  THIS MOISTENING...FOLLOWED BY
   STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL COOLING AND
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IN EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET STREAK IS PROGGED TO
   RESULT IN WEAK DESTABILIZATION BY EARLY MONDAY.  THIS...COUPLED WITH
   WEAK SURFACE HEATING...MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY 08/18Z.
   
   ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP EASTWARD WITH STRONGER FORCING
   DURING THE AFTERNOON...FROM NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS...ACROSS THE
   MOUNTAINS OF SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO AND EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL NEW
   MEXICO.  FORCING MAY REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A FEW
   THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY MONDAY EVENING...MAINLY NEAR  LOW-LEVEL
   BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST COLORADO/SOUTHERN KANSAS
   THE NORTHERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION...BEFORE ACTIVITY
   DIMINISHES DURING THE MID/LATE EVENING HOURS.
   
   ...NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE OZARKS...
   MORE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARD TO EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES.  RETURN FLOW OF
   MODIFYING AIR OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY
   TO DEVELOP UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT.  EVEN THIS WEAK MOISTURE RETURN
   LIKELY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER...WHERE LOW/MID-LEVEL
   CAPPING IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
   AT LEAST THE 09/09-12Z TIME FRAME.
   
   FARTHER NORTH...MODELS SUGGEST LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BECOME
   FOCUSED ON NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF SOUTHERN PLAINS THERMAL
   RIDGE...FROM NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE MISSOURI OZARKS BY LATE
   MONDAY EVENING.  LOW-LEVEL WARMING/MOISTENING IN ZONE OF STRONGER
   LIFT ALONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR
   INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...PARTICULARLY AFTER 09/06Z.  MODEL
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CAPE FOR PARCELS BASED ABOVE
   SURFACE-BASED STABLE LAYER MAY EXCEED 500 J/KG...WITH THERMODYNAMIC
   AND SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST SMALL HAIL NEAR MOST
   VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS.
   
   ..KERR.. 12/07/2003
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0800Z