SPC AC 080830
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0230 AM CST MON DEC 08 2003
   
   VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW
   PSX 15 SSW ACT 15 WNW DAL 35 WNW MLC 30 N MKO 20 S UMN 30 SSE HRO 15
   SW HOT 10 S ELD 30 N HEZ 25 WSW MEI 15 ENE 0A8 15 NNW AUO 20 WNW ABY
   25 ENE AQQ.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE CRP 30 NW TPL
   15 WSW FTW 10 SW ADM 40 NW ADM 35 E CSM 40 ENE GAG 20 W TOP 30 ESE
   DSM 30 NNE MLI 45 SSW SBN 30 N LUK 30 W LOZ 30 WSW AVL MCN 40 WNW
   CTY.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW OTH 40 NW MFR
   15 NW MHS 15 SE RBL 25 WSW SAC 10 W SFO.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF E TX/LA AND THE
   CNTRL GULF CST....
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE PATTERN EXPECTED OVER THE LWR 48 ON DAY 2
   AS STRONG SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW ENTERING NV CONTINUES E/NE FROM W TX
   TO THE LWR MS VLY.  THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY ASSUME A SLIGHT NEGATIVE
   TILT LATER IN THE PERIOD AS HEIGHTS RISE ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD AND
   POTENT E PACIFIC SYSTEM...NOW NEAR 40N/150W...REACHES THE NRN CA
   CST.  STRONGER/SLOWER SOLUTION OF THE GFS/ECMWF WITH THE GRT BASIN
   TROUGH APPEARS MORE CONSISTENT WITH LATEST UPPER AIR/STLT DATA THAN
   DOES WEAKER FORECAST OF THE ETA.
   
   AT LOWER LEVELS...SURFACE LOW THAT WILL ACCOMPANY TX SYSTEM...
   EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED NEAR LTS EARLY TUESDAY...SHOULD DEEPEN AND
   CURVE E/NE ACROSS THE OZARKS LATER IN THE DAY...AND REACH SRN/WRN IL
   BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.  PACIFIC COLD FRONT TRAILING S FROM THE LOW SHOULD
   ACCELERATE E/SE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY
   EXTENDING NE FROM THE LOW STRENGTHENS FROM THE MID MS VLY TO UPR GRT
   LKS.
   
   ...E TX/LA TO THE CNTRL GULF CST/LWR MS VLY...
   A FEW CLUSTERS/BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE IN PROGRESS AT THE
   START OF THE PERIOD OVER NE TX/SE OK AND THE ARKLATEX REGION.  THIS
   WARM ADVECTION ACTIVITY MAY ALSO BE ENHANCED BY ASCENT ASSOCIATED
   WITH WEAK LEAD IMPULSE /NOW OVER AZ/ PRECEDING MAIN UPPER TROUGH. 
   WITH LEADING EDGE OF MODIFIED GULF AIR /DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S
   TO LOW 60S/ ONLY JUST BEGINNING TO REACH AREA... CAPE SHOULD BE WEAK
   AND ANY ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO MARGINALLY
   SEVERE HAIL.
   
   COMBINATION OF INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH MAIN UPPER TROUGH 
   AND MODEST SURFACE HEATING LIKELY TO RESULT IN INTENSIFICATION/
   INCREASED ORGANIZATION OF EXISTING STORMS OVER THE ARKLATEX LATER IN
   THE DAY. OTHER STORMS SHOULD FORM SWD TO THE UPR AND PERHAPS CNTRL
   TX GULF CST AS HEATING/CONVERGENCE BREACH CAP ALONG COLD FRONT AND
   PREFRONTAL TROUGH.
   
   AMPLE /60+ KT/ DEEP SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS FROM
   SE TX NWD INTO ERN OK/WRN AR. BUT ACTIVITY FROM NE TX INTO AR WILL
   LIKELY REMAIN QUASI-LINEAR AND SEMI-ELEVATED GIVEN LINEAR LARGE
   SCALE FORCING AND BACKING OF UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF W TX VORT.  A MORE
   FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DISCRETE STORMS SHOULD EXIST FARTHER S
   ACROSS SE TX AND SRN LA.  GREATER INSTABILITY /MUCAPE TO 1000 J/KG/
   AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THIS REGION MAY SUPPORT BOWING SEGMENTS
   WITH HAIL/HIGH WIND AND PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES DURING THE
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG SRN END OF EXPECTED FORWARD-PROPAGATING
   MCS.
   
   RAINFALL INTO WEAKLY-RECOVERED LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD RETARD
   NWD ADVANCE OF TRUE GULF AIR ACROSS LA/MS THROUGH THE PERIOD. 
   SOMEWHAT GREATER NWD PENETRATION OF MODIFIED GULF AIR
   MAY...HOWEVER...OCCUR FARTHER E ALONG THE GULF CST OVER AL AND THE
   WRN FL PANHANDLE LATER IN THE PERIOD. A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR
   ISOLATED STORMS WITH HIGH WIND/BRIEF TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP IN THESE
   AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY.
   
   FARTHER N...A LIMITED THREAT WILL EXIST FOR WIND DAMAGE OVER PARTS
   OF ERN MO/NE AR AND W TN LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY AS UPPER
   SYSTEM ASSUMES A NEGATIVE TILT...THEREBY INCREASING FRONTOGENETICAL
   FORCING IN REGION OF MODEST BUT INCREASING MOISTURE INFLOW.
   
   ..CORFIDI.. 12/08/2003
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1730Z