STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWK48 KWNS.
    
   VALID 021200-031200
    
   LESS THAN A SLIGHT RISK.
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE MAIN FEATURES OF INTEREST FOR DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE A SLOW
   MOVING/WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS N FL...AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AREA
   OF TX IN ADVANCE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
   FROM AZ TO FAR W TX.  THOUGH MID-HIGH LEVEL FLOW WILL BE STRONG
   OVER FL...POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR
   SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT WITH CONVECTION NEAR
   THE SURFACE FRONT.  THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY IS OF MORE CONCERN
   GIVEN THE 00Z ETA FORECAST OF 1500-2000 J/KG SBCAPE AND STRONG
   VERTICAL SHEAR.  HOWEVER...THE ETA MOISTURE RETURN TO TX APPEARS TO
   BE TOO AGGRESSIVE DURING DAY 2...AND THIS POTENTIAL PROBLEM
   PERSISTS INTO DAY 3.  AT THIS TIME...EXPECT MOISTURE TO BE MORE
   LIMITED THAN SHOWN IN ETA FORECASTS...THUS SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
   ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
    
   ..THOMPSON.. 02/28/03
    
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1200Z