STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWK48 KWNS.
    
   VALID 271200-281200
    
   THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY OVER
   PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN KS...NORTHERN OK...AND WESTERN MO.
   
   ETA/GFS AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
   THAT FAST-MOVING UPPER TROUGH NOW NEAR 41N/146W WILL MOVE INTO THE
   WESTERN UNITED STATES ON WEDNESDAY...THEN DEEPEN OVER THE ROCKIES
   BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  DEEP SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
   OVER WESTERN OK/TX PANHANDLE BY THAT TIME...WITH SURFACE FRONT
   EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO IA AND A DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
   ACROSS WESTERN OK INTO NORTHWEST TX.  VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
   PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF OK/KS AND WESTERN
   MO...WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUBSTANTIAL DAYTIME HEATING.  THE
   PRIMARY NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS ON DAY3 WILL
   BE THE LACK OF RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
   
   CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
   THE LOW/MID 50S OVER THE KS/OK REGION ON THURSDAY.  MLCAPE VALUES
   OF ABOUT 1000 J/KG WILL RESULT...BUT SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING MAY ALSO
   REMAIN.  ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
   NEAR THE SURFACE LOW/FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL KS AND NORTHWEST OK...BUT
   LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE AND
   INTENSITY OF SEVERE WEATHER.
   
   ..HART.. 03/25/03
    
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1200Z