STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWK48 KWNS.
VALID 171200-181200
LESS THAN A SLIGHT RISK.
READJUSTMENT IN LARGE SCALE PATTERN THU AS CURRENT STRONG SYSTEM
MOVING TOWARD PLAINS...WEAKENS IN ERN RIDGE POSITION AS IT MOVES
NEWD ACROSS GREAT LAKES...WHILE L/W TROUGH IS REESTABLISHED IN THE
WRN U.S.
FIRST S/WV AND MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX MOVES OUT OF WRN TROUGH INTO
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THU NIGHT WHILE FOLLOWING S/WV DIGS SSEWD FAR
WRN U.S.
SURFACE LOW LEE OF CENTRAL ROCKIES DEEPENS THU NIGHT WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE SPEED MAX. LOW LEVEL JET RESPONDS TO THIS SURFACE
DEEPENING AND INCREASES RAPIDLY THU NIGHT OVER CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS.
GULF MOISTURE AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD CONFINED TO SRN PORTION OF SRN
PLAINS WILL RAPIDLY RETURN NWD THU NIGHT. THE ETA IN PARTICULAR
INDICATES STRONG UVVS DEVELOP THU NIGHT DUE BOTH TO WARM ADVECTION
AND APPROACH OF DYNAMIC JET MAX FROM THE SW IN THE SEE TEXT AREA.
DEEPER GULF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM
VS THE ONE CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARDS THE PLAINS. ETA IN PARTICULAR
INDICATES ELEVATED CAPES SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A HAIL THREAT
DEVELOPING FROM ERN PLAINS INTO LWR MO VALLEY LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
..HALES.. 04/15/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1200Z
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