Skip Navigation Links www.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
 
   

Search SPC
 

Apr-15-2003 1200 UTC Day 3 Convective Outlook
Categorical Graphic
1200 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
      
Probabilistic Graphic (more info)
1200 Day 3 Prob Graphic
(Select thumbnail to view full image)
    
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWK48 KWNS.
    
   VALID 171200-181200
    
   LESS THAN A SLIGHT RISK.
   
   READJUSTMENT IN LARGE SCALE PATTERN THU AS CURRENT STRONG SYSTEM
   MOVING TOWARD PLAINS...WEAKENS IN ERN RIDGE POSITION AS IT MOVES
   NEWD ACROSS GREAT LAKES...WHILE L/W TROUGH IS REESTABLISHED IN THE
   WRN U.S.
   
   FIRST S/WV AND MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX MOVES OUT OF WRN TROUGH INTO
   CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THU NIGHT WHILE FOLLOWING S/WV DIGS SSEWD FAR
   WRN U.S.  
   
   SURFACE LOW LEE OF CENTRAL ROCKIES DEEPENS THU NIGHT WITH THE
   APPROACH OF THE SPEED MAX.  LOW LEVEL JET RESPONDS TO THIS SURFACE
   DEEPENING AND INCREASES RAPIDLY THU NIGHT OVER CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS.
   GULF MOISTURE AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD CONFINED TO SRN PORTION OF SRN
   PLAINS WILL RAPIDLY RETURN NWD THU NIGHT.  THE ETA IN PARTICULAR
   INDICATES STRONG UVVS DEVELOP THU NIGHT DUE BOTH TO WARM ADVECTION
   AND APPROACH OF DYNAMIC JET MAX FROM THE SW IN THE SEE TEXT AREA.
   
   DEEPER GULF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM
   VS THE ONE CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARDS THE PLAINS.  ETA IN PARTICULAR
   INDICATES ELEVATED CAPES SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A HAIL THREAT
   DEVELOPING FROM ERN PLAINS INTO LWR MO VALLEY LATE IN THE FORECAST
   PERIOD.
   
    
   ..HALES.. 04/15/03
    
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1200Z
        
Top/Latest Day 1 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home