STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWK48 KWNS.
VALID 121200-131200
LESS THAN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE TSTMS.
...SYNOPSIS...
A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND...WHILE AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
MOVES SWD INTO THE N/NE GULF AND INTO NRN/CENTRAL FL. THE WRN
PORTION OF THE FRONT MAY BEGIN TO RETURN NWD AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS
TX LATE IN THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE
CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS. THE RETURNING MOISTURE...BENEATH STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION
FOR A FEW ELEVATED STRONG STORMS IN THE WAA REGIME OVER KS OR WRN
OK LATE IN THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED STRONG STORMS MAY FORM
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW TX DURING THE DAY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY
TO THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
..THOMPSON.. 05/10/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1200Z
|