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Jun-11-2003 1200 UTC Day 3 Convective Outlook
Categorical Graphic
1200 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
      
Probabilistic Graphic (more info)
1200 Day 3 Prob Graphic
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   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWK48 KWNS.
    
   VALID 131200-141200
    
   THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER LARGE PARTS OF THE SRN AND
   CNTRL PLNS...THE LWR MS AND TN VLYS...THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND
   THE NRN HI PLNS.
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   TWO-STREAM PATTERN OF RECENT DAYS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
   FRIDAY...BUT WITH INCREASED AMPLIFICATION IN BOTH JETS.  IN THE NRN
   BRANCH...AN IMPULSE NOW IN THE GULF OF AK WILL CONTINUE ENE INTO
   SRN ALBERTA.  ANOTHER NRN IMPULSE...NOW IN MT...EXPECTED TO PHASE
   WITH IMPULSE NOW IN BC/ALBERTA AND DEEPEN SEWD INTO THE UPR GRT
   LKS.
   
   FEATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN MORE SUBTLE IN THE SRN STREAM.  SOME
   SIGNAL EXISTS /ESPECIALLY IN THE ECMWF/ THAT SHORTWAVE COMPLEX NOW
   EXTENDING FROM OFF THE SRN CA CST EWD INTO AZ WILL MOVE ENE ACROSS
   THE SRN PLNS ON FRIDAY...WHERE IT WILL PHASE WITH A DISTURBANCE OF
   MORE NRN ORIGIN AND FORM A CLOSED LOW OVER THE CNTRL PLNS BY 12Z
   SATURDAY.
   
   ...SRN PLNS TO LWR MS VLY...
   CONTINUING PRESENCE OF ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SRN STREAM JET...AMPLE
   MOISTURE SUPPLY AND STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALL SUGGEST
   AN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY ACROSS MUCH OF TX/OK EWD INTO THE LWR MS
   VLY.  ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS...POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SEVERE
   ...MAY BE ON-GOING AT START OF PERIOD OVER THE REGION...BUT
   GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH AFTERNOON HEATING
   LATER IN THE DAY.  COMBINATION OF MODERATE SHEAR AND STRONG 
   INSTABILITY SHOULD YIELD SCATTERED SUPERCELLS/STRONG MULTICELLS
   ACROSS REGION...ESPECIALLY INVOF LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE IN TX/OK. 
   THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR MORE LARGE MCSS
   FRIDAY NIGHT.  FARTHER E...EXISTING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS MAY
   INTENSIFY WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...WITH EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS
   SPREADING A WIND/HAIL THREAT EWD INTO THE TN VLY.  
   
   ...NRN HI PLNS...
   CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED 
   AFTERNOON/EVENING SUPERCELLS OVER CNTRL AND ERN MT AND PERHAPS NE
   WY...WHERE AMPLE SHEAR/INSTABILITY SHOULD EXIST FOR DEVELOPMENT
   AHEAD OF NRN STREAM DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE GULF OF AK.  
   
   ...ELSEWHERE...
   A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE DIURNAL STORMS/STORM CLUSTERS MAY DEVELOP
   ALONG COLD/STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE CNTRL PLNS/MID MS/LWR OH VLY
   EWD TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.   
   
   
   ..CORFIDI.. 06/11/03
    
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1200Z
        
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