STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWK48 KWNS.
VALID 131200-141200
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER LARGE PARTS OF THE SRN AND
CNTRL PLNS...THE LWR MS AND TN VLYS...THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND
THE NRN HI PLNS.
...SYNOPSIS...
TWO-STREAM PATTERN OF RECENT DAYS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY...BUT WITH INCREASED AMPLIFICATION IN BOTH JETS. IN THE NRN
BRANCH...AN IMPULSE NOW IN THE GULF OF AK WILL CONTINUE ENE INTO
SRN ALBERTA. ANOTHER NRN IMPULSE...NOW IN MT...EXPECTED TO PHASE
WITH IMPULSE NOW IN BC/ALBERTA AND DEEPEN SEWD INTO THE UPR GRT
LKS.
FEATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN MORE SUBTLE IN THE SRN STREAM. SOME
SIGNAL EXISTS /ESPECIALLY IN THE ECMWF/ THAT SHORTWAVE COMPLEX NOW
EXTENDING FROM OFF THE SRN CA CST EWD INTO AZ WILL MOVE ENE ACROSS
THE SRN PLNS ON FRIDAY...WHERE IT WILL PHASE WITH A DISTURBANCE OF
MORE NRN ORIGIN AND FORM A CLOSED LOW OVER THE CNTRL PLNS BY 12Z
SATURDAY.
...SRN PLNS TO LWR MS VLY...
CONTINUING PRESENCE OF ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SRN STREAM JET...AMPLE
MOISTURE SUPPLY AND STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALL SUGGEST
AN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY ACROSS MUCH OF TX/OK EWD INTO THE LWR MS
VLY. ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS...POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SEVERE
...MAY BE ON-GOING AT START OF PERIOD OVER THE REGION...BUT
GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH AFTERNOON HEATING
LATER IN THE DAY. COMBINATION OF MODERATE SHEAR AND STRONG
INSTABILITY SHOULD YIELD SCATTERED SUPERCELLS/STRONG MULTICELLS
ACROSS REGION...ESPECIALLY INVOF LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE IN TX/OK.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR MORE LARGE MCSS
FRIDAY NIGHT. FARTHER E...EXISTING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS MAY
INTENSIFY WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...WITH EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS
SPREADING A WIND/HAIL THREAT EWD INTO THE TN VLY.
...NRN HI PLNS...
CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING SUPERCELLS OVER CNTRL AND ERN MT AND PERHAPS NE
WY...WHERE AMPLE SHEAR/INSTABILITY SHOULD EXIST FOR DEVELOPMENT
AHEAD OF NRN STREAM DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE GULF OF AK.
...ELSEWHERE...
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE DIURNAL STORMS/STORM CLUSTERS MAY DEVELOP
ALONG COLD/STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE CNTRL PLNS/MID MS/LWR OH VLY
EWD TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
..CORFIDI.. 06/11/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1200Z
|