SPC AC 172005
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0205 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2004
   
   VALID 172000Z - 181200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S
   7R4 45 SSE ESF 35 SW HEZ 45 NNW MOB CEW AQQ.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E PSX 15 NNW TPL
   30 SW ADM 15 NE ADM 35 E HSV 10 SW ATL 50 N AYS 20 WNW JAX 40 SSE
   CTY.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SERN LA EWD TO THE WRN
   FL PANHANDLE...
   
   ...CENTRAL/EAST TX...
   SATELLITE IMAGERY/SURFACE ANALYSES SUGGESTS THE UPPER LOW ACROSS
   NWRN TX/SWRN OK IS IN THE PROCESS OF OCCLUDING WITH VADS/PROFILERS
   ACROSS CENTRAL TX SHOWING VEERING WINDS ADVECTING DRY AIR EWD. A
   SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE RED RIVER /10 S
   DUA/ SWD TO NEAR CLL TO VCT...WHILE A WARM FRONT EXTENDED SEWD
   ACROSS NWRN-SERN LA TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.  MOIST...
   SLY SURFACE FLOW WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS ERN TX IS MAINTAINING
   SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THIS
   REGION HAS INHIBITED SURFACE HEATING AND SUBSEQUENT SUFFICIENT
   DESTABILIZATION FOR STORM INITIATION.  HOWEVER...18Z RUC CONTINUES
   TO  SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
   SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS ERN TX BETWEEN 21-00Z.
   
   COLDER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-20 C AT 500 MB/ ON THE SRN PERIPHERY
   OF THE NWRN TX/SWRN OK UPPER LOW WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS ERN TX
   THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONTRIBUTING TO MARGINAL
   INSTABILITY /MUCAPE 500-1000 J/KG/ AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL
   WITH STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP ACROSS THIS AREA. SINCE SURFACE
   TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 70S TO SUPPORT
   STRONGER INSTABILITY...AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PRIMARILY
   ELEVATED INSTABILITY...THE SEVERE PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN LOWERED TO
   5 PERCENT.
   
   ...SOUTHERN LA TO FL PANHANDLE...
   LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
   LIFTING ENEWD ALONG THE UPPER TX COAST/WRN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
   CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS
   MAINLY OFFSHORE OVER THE NRN GULF.  AIR MASS ALONG SOUTH CENTRAL/
   SERN LA HAS BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER AND
   LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES...AND LOW LCLS WITHIN MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
   CONTINUING A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. AS STORMS MOVE EWD
   INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT THIS EVENING...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
   AND OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME.
   
   ..PETERS.. 01/17/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0100Z