SPC AC 251248
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0648 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2004
   
   VALID 251300Z - 261200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S LCH 40 NW JAN 50
   WSW MEM 40 SW HOT 35 W FYV UMN VIH BMG 35 ESE DAY CRW 35 WNW BLF 20
   NNW TRI 25 SW HSS AND CAE CRE ...CONT... SSI 25 W CTY.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM TAD 40 W PUB DEN 35
   NW AKO GLD 15 ENE LBL 60 SSE EHA 25 S CAO TAD.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LARGE SCALE MIDDLE-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP FROM SASK TO W TX
   AS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL
   IMAGERY OVER NRN ROCKIES -- DIGS SEWD TOWARD SRN HIGH PLAINS. 
   MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION NOW OVER ARKLATEX REGION WILL
   CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE NEWD AND DEAMPLIFY...PASSING THROUGH ERN
   CONUS MEAN RIDGE OVER PA AROUND 26/06Z AND BECOMING DIFFUSE
   THEREAFTER.  SRN STREAM TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT OVER BAJA -- IS
   EXPECTED TO EJECT NEWD ACROSS NERN MEX AND S TX LATE TONIGHT...ALSO
   WEAKENING WITH APPROACH OF ROCKIES SYSTEM.
   
   AT SFC...COMPLEX BAROCLINIC PATTERN ANALYZED OVER SERN CONUS...WITH
   THREE PRIMARY FRONTAL ZONES...
   1. SRN CO THROUGH NWRN OK SFC LOW...THEN EWD ACROSS NRN
   AR/TN...LINKING WITH A COLD-AIR DAMMING SURGE E OF APPALACHIANS OVER
   GA AND EXTREME SRN SC. ERN PORTION OF THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
   MOVE SWWD ACROSS MOST OF GA AND STALL -- PROBABLY FARTHER SW THAN
   MOST MODEL PROGS INDICATE GIVEN DENSITY AND CURRENT ISALLOBARIC
   TRENDS OF POST FRONTAL AIR MASS.  SFC CYCLONE WILL INTENSIFY
   TODAY/TONIGHT AND MOVE EWD OVER AR...AS ROCKIES TROUGH APPROACHES.
   2. SERN OK ESEWD THROUGH WEAK FRONTAL WAVE LOW OVER SRN AR...THEN
   SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL MS...SRN AL...FL PANHANDLE AND PENINSULAR W
   COAST. AR LOW SHOULD DIE AS SRN STREAM TROUGH
   DEPARTS/WEAKENS...FOLLOWED BY NWD MOVEMENT AND BLENDING WITH FIRST
   FRONT. COMBINED BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NWD ACROSS TN VALLEY AS WARM
   FRONT AHEAD OF OK/AR CYCLONE...REACHING TO NEAR OH RIVER BY END OF
   PERIOD.
   3.  MARINE FRONT -- NOW JUST OFFSHORE LA/AL THEN ABOUT 90 NM
   OFFSHORE FL PANHANDLE AND W COAST.  THIS BOUNDARY DENOTED NRN EDGE
   OF MOST MODIFIED GULF/CARIBBEAN AIR.  DRIFTING NWD AS WARM
   FRONT...IT MAY REACH COASTAL AL OR WRN FL PANHANDLE BEFORE
   CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY CROSSES AREA.
   
   ...GULF COAST STATES -- LA TO FL PANHANDLE...
   LINE OF TSTMS NOW LOCATED FROM SW MS SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SWRN
   LA...TO GULF WATERS OFFSHORE GLS.  EXPECT CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED
   ACTIVITY BOUNDARY TO SHIFT EWD THROUGHOUT TODAY ALONG GULF COASTAL
   PLAIN...REACHING WRN FL PANHANDLE BEFORE DARK. INTERMITTENT STRONG
   TO MARGINAL SEVERE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR
   INTENSE OR CONCENTRATED ENOUGH ATTM TO WARRANT CATEGORICAL SEVERE
   RISK.
   
   LINE OF CONVECTIVE ASCENT MAY DECELERATE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER FL
   PANHANDLE...SERN AL AND WRN GA AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND ASSOCIATED
   ISALLOBARIC FORCING MOVE AWAY TO THE NE AND WEAKEN...AND AS
   CYCLOGENESIS RENEWS OVER OK/AR.  AIRMASS BETWEEN MARINE BAROCLINIC
   BOUNDARY AND FIRST INLAND FRONT MAY MODIFY SUFFICIENTLY TODAY
   THROUGH WAA AND GRADUAL DIABATIC HEATING TO OVERCOME NEARLY
   MOIST-ADIABATIC LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND GENERATE 300-500 J/KG
   MLCAPE.  RESULTING THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MAY BE ENOUGH TO PERMIT
   GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LIMITS TO REACH SFC...GIVEN 40-50 KT FLOW IN
   700-900 MB LAYER AND FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES. BOTH SMALL BOWS AND
   A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE AMIDST 300-500 J/KG 0-3 KM SRH AND 70
   KT 0-6 KM SHEAR.  HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT ORGANIZATION
   AND COVERAGE OF SEVERE.
   
   IF MARINE FRONT REACHES COAST AND SUPERCELLS CAN FORM/MATURE BEFORE
   CROSSING IT...TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BECOME ENHANCED -- ESPECIALLY
   ALONG AND JUST TO ITS N WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR/VORTICITY/SR INFLOW
   ARE MAXIMIZED. RIGHT NOW THIS SCENARIO IS TOO CONDITIONAL FOR MORE
   THAN MARGINAL TORNADO PROBABILITIES...ASSOCIATED PRIMARILY WITH BOW
   ECHOES.  COASTAL-FRONT SCENARIO WILL BE MONITORED FOR MESOSCALE
   TRENDS SUPPORTING RISK UPGRADE.
   
   ..EDWARDS/CROSBIE.. 01/25/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1630Z