SPC AC 021237
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0637 AM CST MON FEB 02 2004
   
   VALID 021300Z - 031200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW UKI 45 NNE SAC
   60 S NFL 35 S P38 60 S SGU 35 W PRC 10 SW YUM.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE SAV 50 NNW AYS
   ABY 20 SSW CEW ...CONT... 20 SSW BPT 25 N BPT 40 N POE 20 WSW MLU
   GWO 15 NE MSL 35 W CHA 40 N ATL AHN CLT 20 NNW RWI HSE.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   DOWNSTREAM OF SPLIT IN UPPER FLOW PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
   ...NORTHERN BRANCH REMAINS MOST PROMINENT BELT OF WESTERLIES
   EASTWARD INTO THE UNITED STATES.  A COUPLE OF HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGHS
   ARE CURRENTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS REGIME...ONE OVER THE CENTRAL/
   SOUTHERN PLAINS...THE OTHER NOW APPROACHING THE PACIFIC COAST. 
   MODELS SUGGEST LEAD TROUGH WILL TAKE ON INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT
   AND LIFT ACROSS THE LOWER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
   TODAY...BEFORE CONTINUING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
   APPALACHIANS TONIGHT.  THIS WILL OCCUR AS UPSTREAM TROUGH CONTINUES
   TO DIG INLAND ACROSS CALIFORNIA.
   
   ...EAST OF ROCKIES...
   LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH IS COMPOSED
   OF A COUPLE SMALLER SCALE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS.  ONE IS NOW BEGINNING
   TO LIFT OUT OF EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WHILE
   THE OTHER IS DIGGING OUT OF THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE
   CENTRAL PLAINS.  MODELS SUGGEST SHORT WAVES WILL GRADUALLY MERGE
   DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL
   SUBSIDENCE/DRYING OVERSPREADING THE GULF STATES LATER TODAY/TONIGHT
   AS STRONGER LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION SHIFTS
   AWAY...INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC STATES.
   
   ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WESTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS
   IS BEING SUPPORTED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD SHORT WAVE
   TROUGH.  THIS FORCING IS PROGGED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MIDDAY...BEFORE STRONGER LIFT REDEVELOPS
   EASTWARD IN LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME OVER THE TENNESSEE
   VALLEY.
   
   DESPITE FAVORABLE DYNAMIC FORCING...MOISTURE INFLUX OFF THE STILL
   MODIFYING WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN
   WEAK OR NON EXISTENT DUE TO INCREASINGLY WESTERLY COMPONENT TO
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE GULF STATES EARLY TODAY.  THIS WILL
   STRONGLY LIMIT DESTABILIZATION...AND APPEARS TO BE PRIMARY
   MITIGATING FACTOR WITH REGARD TO SEVERE THREAT.  WEAK SURFACE-BASED 
   DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR NEAR THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST THIS
   MORNING...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH
   ONGOING CLUSTER.  HOWEVER...STRONGEST ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO
   REMAIN OFFSHORE...AND CLUSTER SHOULD WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS
   FORCING LIFTS NORTHEAST OF CENTRAL GULF COAST.
   
   IN RESPONSE TO SHORT WAVE DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
   MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL
   JET MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME MOISTURE INCREASE AND ENHANCED ISENTROPIC
   ASCENT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA INTO WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS
   WILL OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AND MAY BE
   ACCOMPANIED BY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BEFORE INCREASING MID-LEVEL
   CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ENDS THREAT.  ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
   DEVELOP WILL BE SUPPORTED BY WEAK CAPE FOR PARCELS LIFTED ABOVE
   SURFACE/NEAR-SURFACE INVERSION LAYER...WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE SEVERE
   THREAT.
   
   OVERNIGHT...MODELS INDICATE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH LARGER-SCALE
   UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
   CAROLINAS.  WHILE MOISTURE RETURN WILL ALSO BE VERY LIMITED ACROSS
   THIS REGION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DESTABILIZATION MAY BECOME
   SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY... MAINLY ACROSS
   EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TOWARD 03/12Z.
   
   ...WEST OF ROCKIES...
   MODELS INDICATE 500 MB COLD POOL...WITH TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS
   -30C...ACCOMPANYING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA COAST. 
   AS TROUGH PROGRESSES INLAND TODAY...COOLING ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
   DESTABILIZATION AND POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. 
   
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY BEEN EVIDENT OFF THE
   NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST ASSOCIATED WITH FORCING IN EXIT REGION OF
   INITIAL MID/UPPER JET STREAK.  THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO MIGRATE
   ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN DURING THE
   DAY...WITH ANOTHER VIGOROUS JET PROGGED TO DIG OFF THE SOUTHERN
   CALIFORNIA COAST LATER TODAY/TONIGHT.  DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE
   SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THIS EVENING WILL BE ENHANCED BY WEAK
   MOIST ONSHORE FLOW...AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
   SURFACE-BASED CAPE MAY APPROACH 500 J/KG.  GIVEN LOW FREEZING/WET
   BULB ZERO LEVELS AND FAVORABLE SHEAR...ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME
   SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW CELLS PRODUCING HAIL NEAR SEVERE LIMITS.
   
   ..KERR.. 02/02/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1630Z