SPC AC 051256
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0656 AM CST THU FEB 05 2004
   
   VALID 051300Z - 061200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW
   GLS 45 SSE LFK 45 S PBF 60 ENE PBF 15 NNW UOX TUP 10 SE CBM 15 S 0A8
   15 SE SEM 10 N PNS.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE VCT 50 WNW VCT
   30 E TPL HOT 10 W CGI 30 SSW BMG 35 NNW LEX 35 NNW JKL 10 E TYS 30 W
   AHN 25 WNW PFN.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
   
   ...LOWER MS VALLEY...
   CO/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS UPPER LOW WITHIN ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH WILL
   LIFT NEWD TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY AS A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH. 
   STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
   OVER NRN MEXICO TO THE MID MS VALLEY WILL SPREAD DOWNSTREAM WITH
   STRONG DIFLUENT FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS
   AFTERNOON/EVENING.
   
   SURFACE ANALYSES SHOW A BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE MIDDLE TX
   COAST NEWD ACROSS WRN-NERN LA TO CENTRAL MS/NRN AL...WITH A SERIES
   OF WEAK SURFACE WAVES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.  HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE
   APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN STRONG SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
   FOR CONTINUED GULF MOISTURE RETURN WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WAA FORCED
   CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY AS FAR NORTH AS THE LOWER OH VALLEY. 
   RAIN COOLED AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE SW-NE ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY
   SHOULD LIMIT THE NWD MOVEMENT OF THE WARM SECTOR TO NRN LA TO
   CENTRAL MS/SWRN AL. FURTHER SOUTH...SOME DIURNAL HEATING COMBINED
   WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S WILL RESULT IN
   MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR.
   
   ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
   AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS UPPER FLOW
   BECOMES INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY
   ATOP INCREASING SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY.  STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
   WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED LINES AND SUPERCELLS...WITH CURVED HODOGRAPHS
   IN THE LOW-LEVELS /0-3 KM SRH VALUES RANGING FROM 300-400 M2/S2/ 
   SUPPORTING TORNADIC SUPERCELLS.  THE POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR
   DISCRETE TORNADIC STORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
   
   AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARD WRN TN BY 00Z AND THEN INTO INDIANA
   OVERNIGHT...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD REACHING ERN TN TO
   SERN LA BY 12Z FRIDAY. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND ASSOCIATED WIND
   FIELDS WILL TEND TO FAVOR A DAMAGING WIND THREAT OVERNIGHT...THOUGH
   GREATER INSTABILITY NEARER THE COAST OF LA/MS WILL SUPPORT TORNADOES
   OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
   
   ..PETERS/JEWELL.. 02/05/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1630Z