SPC AC 140551
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1151 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2004
   
   VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S
   CTY 40 NNW DAB ...CONT... 15 NNW VRB 45 SSE FMY.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE VRB 50 ENE EYW
   ...CONT... 25 SW PSX 35 ESE AUS 45 NE CLL 55 S SHV MLU 45 ESE GWO 50
   NW BHM 20 NE GAD 30 NW ATL 35 SW AGS 50 W CHS 10 E CHS.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CLM 30 NNW PDX 40 S
   EUG 35 SSE MFR 35 SE RBL 10 NNW SFO.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CNTRL FL...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   STRONG AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE LOWER MS
   RIVER VALLEY THIS PERIOD WITH A 70-90KT 500MB JET STREAK ROTATING
   THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LOW FROM THE TX GULF COAST TO THE FL PNHDL
   THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...A STRONG POLAR JET ARCING FROM
   SCNTRL CANADA THROUGH THE NORTHEAST WILL ENSURE A CONTINUATION OF
   SEASONABLY COLD WEATHER FROM THE NRN PLAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
   AND NEW ENGLAND. THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST WILL BREAK DOWN
   THIS PERIOD AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS SPREAD INLAND FROM THE
   ERN PACIFIC AND RESULT IN WIDESPREAD LOWERING OF THE MID LEVEL
   HEIGHT FILED FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE ROCKIES.
   
   ...LOWER MS VALLEY/SOUTHEAST AND FL...
   TSTM FCST WILL FOCUS ON THE STRONG LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE GULF
   COAST REGION. ALREADY...A LONGER LIVED CLUSTER OF ELEVATED STORMS
   WAS MOVING NEWD ACROSS SERN TX EARLY TODAY WITH ANOTHER PERSISTENT
   AREA OF CG LTG ACTIVITY NOTED OVER THE CNTRL GULF. SUBTLE MODEL
   DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND RELATED
   SURFACE FEATURES LENDS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THIS FCST. IN GENERAL...A
   PRIMARY SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY
   DEVELOP OVER THE NWRN GULF...TRACK NEWD ACROSS THE MS DELTA REGION
   THROUGH LATE TODAY...BEFORE OCCLUDING OVER AL BY EARLY SATURDAY.
   POCKETS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH STRONG FORCING WILL
   SUSTAIN SPORADIC/ISOLD AREAS OF WEAK CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM
   FROM THE TX GULF COAST ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND INTO AL
   THROUGH THE PERIOD.
   
   MORE VIGOROUS TSTM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   RETURN OF MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS WITHIN ERN/SERN QUADRANT OF WEAK
   TRIPLE POINT LOW EXPECTED TRACK FROM THE ERN GULF ACROSS NRN FL
   LATER TODAY. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS ALREADY DEPICTS THIS LOW WELL
   SOUTH OF MOB...WITH A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EAST OF THE
   LOW TO CNTRL FL. INCREASING SURFACE THROUGH 850MB SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF
   THE STRONG UPPER SYSTEM AND FRONTAL WAVE WILL TRANSPORT HIGHER
   THETA-E AIRMASS NEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA. AS FRONTAL
   ZONE RETREATS NWD AND MODEST SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES... SBCAPE
   VALUES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 250-500 J.KG RANGE BY AFTERNOON.
   STRONGEST FORCING TO SUSTAIN TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ALONG AND NORTH OF
   THE FRONT...AND AHEAD OF THE WEAK SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
   DESPITE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL INSTABILITY...STRONG DEEP LAYER AND MODEST
   LOW LEVEL SHEAR... ESPECIALLY NEAR THE FRONT AND LOW...SHOULD
   SUPPORT A FEW SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS/SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR ISOLD/BRIEF TORNADOES.
   
   AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE EAST COAST OF FL DURING
   THE EVENING...A TRAILING PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE
   SEWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CNTRL PENINSULA. LARGE SCALE
   SUPPORT FOR UPWARD MOTION BENEATH STRONG/DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW
   AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS SHOULD MAINTAIN A CHANCE FOR STRONG
   TO ISOLD SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS THE SQUALL LINE  MOVES SEWD THROUGH
   EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
   
   ..CARBIN/TAYLOR.. 02/14/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1300Z