SPC AC 201241
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0641 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2004
   
   VALID 201300Z - 211200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE ERI 30 SSE PIT
   10 ENE BKW 30 E HSS 55 E CHA 10 W RMG 35 E HSV 30 NNW HSV 45 SW BNA
   15 WSW BNA 20 N BWG 35 WSW SDF 10 SSW BMG 10 WSW CMI 25 S PIA 35 ESE
   MLI 35 WSW RFD 15 NNW RFD 25 SSW MKE 20 S MKG 20 NE MTC.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   DYNAMIC UPPER TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST THIS MORNING AND
   WILL CONTINUE NEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE
   PHASING WITH A NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE DEVELOPING ESEWD FROM THE
   DAKOTAS. RESULTANT SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM IL/LM TO GEORGIAN BAY
   THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS EWD FROM THE MS
   RIVER...ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS...TO THE APPALACHIANS. FARTHER
   SOUTH...ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS FCST TO INCREASE ACROSS SRN FL THIS
   PERIOD AS A WEAKENING UPPER WAVE MOVES EWD ACROSS THE GULF.
   
   IN THE WEST...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE CA COAST
   WITH MINOR PERTURBATIONS IN THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH ROTATING INLAND
   ACROSS SRN CA AND THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY.
   
   ...MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...
   WITH UPPER SYSTEM LIFTING ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND SURFACE RIDGING
   SITUATED ALONG THE GULF COAST...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE
   LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE OH VALLEY WILL REMAIN QUITE LIMITED. DESPITE
   THIS LIMITED MOISTURE...STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT AND RELATIVELY
   STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW TSTMS NEAR VORT
   CENTER AND AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW AS THESE FEATURES TRACK NEWD ACROSS
   THE UPPER MIDWEST/SRN GREAT LAKES THROUGH LATE TODAY.
   
   ...OH/TN VALLEYS TO APPALACHIANS...
   HEATING AND MARGINAL MOISTENING ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AND AHEAD OF
   THE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE AN AXIS OF SURFACE BASED CAPE FROM THE
   LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD TO THE OH VALLEY WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF
   INSTABILITY DIMINISHING WITH NWD EXTENT. WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
   AND WEAK QG FORCING FOR ASCENT SOUTH OF THE TN VALLEY SHOULD LIMIT
   THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION AS FRONT MOVES INTO THIS REGION
   DESPITE HIGHER CAPE. LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS
   ERN TN/KY AND OH LATER TODAY AS COLD FRONT AND STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS
   SPREAD ACROSS THESE AREAS. MARGINAL CAPE AOB 150 J/KG AND WARM
   EQUILIBRIUM TEMPERATURES SUGGEST TSTM CHANCES/CG LTG WITH THIS
   ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LIMITED.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 02/20/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1630Z