SPC AC 270037
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0637 PM CST THU FEB 26 2004
   
   VALID 270100Z - 271200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N 4BK 30 WNW LMT
   LMT 60 ESE 4LW 50 SSW BOI 10 S TWF SLC 10 NE MLF 15 WSW P38 45 NNW
   DRA 40 NW BFL 45 SSE MRY.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE CHS 35 SE CAE
   CAE 40 SE SPA 10 W CLT 40 SSW GSO RWI HSE.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...PACIFIC COAST/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
   LARGE-SCALE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH...WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES...HAS
   FOR THE MOST PART DEVELOPED INLAND.  HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT JET
   STREAK CONTINUES TO DIG JUST OFF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST...AND
   WILL SUPPORT AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN
   BAJA OVERNIGHT.  OTHER PROMINENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT FROM
   THE GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN
   HIGH PLAINS BY 27/12Z.
   
   WHILE SURFACE HEATING BENEATH UPPER COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE
   SCALE TROUGH HAS CONTRIBUTED TO WEAK SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY
   ACROSS A BROAD AREA WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...THUNDERSTORM
   ACTIVITY TO THIS POINT HAS BEEN RATHER SPARSE. THIS APPEARS TO BE
   PRIMARILY DUE TO LACK OF STRONGER/MORE FOCUSED LARGE-SCALE UPWARD
   VERTICAL MOTION FIELD.
   
   CORE OF MID-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO ADVECTED INTO NORTH
   CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...AND HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MOST CONCENTRATED
   THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ...WHICH IS STILL ONGOING ACROSS THE
   SACRAMENTO AND NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEYS.  VERTICAL SHEAR
   PROFILES BENEATH COLD POOL HAVE GENERALLY BEEN WEAK...LIMITING
   SEVERE THREAT IN WEAKLY UNSTABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. 
   HOWEVER...CLOSER TO UPPER JET AXIS...NORTH/NORTHEAST OF FRESNO...
   STRONGER SHEAR APPEARS TO BE ENHANCING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
   SOMEWHAT.  SOME HAIL APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR
   ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO WITH THIS ACTIVITY...BUT INTENSITY LIKELY WILL
   DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.  AS AREA
   OF STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING SHIFTS EAST OF THE NORTHERN SIERRA
   NEVADA...A FEW ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
   GREAT BASIN OVERNIGHT.
   
   ...SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS...
   ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION...MIGRATING EAST
   NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
   TONIGHT...ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL COLD POOL WILL STILL CONTRIBUTE TO
   WEAK DESTABILIZATION.  THIS WILL OCCUR NEAR WEAK WAVE ALONG
   BAROCLINIC ZONE VICINITY OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/SOUTH CAROLINA
   BORDER.  MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TONIGHT...AND THIS HAS BEEN
   SUPPORTED BY RECENT CLOUD TO GROUND STRIKE IN LIGHTNING DATA...
   EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK CONVECTION NEAR FLORENCE SC.  ACTIVITY MAY
   INCREASE A BIT FURTHER TONIGHT...BUT MORE EXTENSIVE AND VIGOROUS
   THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY OCCUR CLOSER TO SURFACE LOW OFF
   THE CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS.
   
   ..KERR.. 02/27/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0600Z