SPC AC 291627
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1027 AM CST SUN FEB 29 2004
   
   VALID 291630Z - 011200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW
   JLN 15 NNW PNC 20 N P28 20 S RSL 35 NNE RSL 30 NNE CNK 10 WSW FNB 10
   NNE STJ 40 SW SZL 10 SSW JLN.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N GWO 15 NW BPT 55
   NW VCT 30 S AUS 50 ENE ACT 40 SSE DUA 40 ESE OKC 25 WSW END 45 NNE
   GAG 30 SSE GCK 20 N GCK 30 SW MCK 20 S BUB 30 WNW SUX 35 NNE ALO 35
   ESE DBQ 25 NNW PAH 10 NNW MKL 15 N GWO.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS EASTERN KANSAS...
   
   ...CENTRAL PLAINS...
   
   INTENSE S/WV TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL WIND MAX
   ROTATING NEWD ACROSS SRN PLAINS INTO LOWER MO VALLEY BY TONIGHT. 
   850MB SLY JET OF 60PLUS KT CURRENTLY FROM N TX TO ERN KS WILL SHIFT 
   TO MID MS/WRN OH VALLEY BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD. THE AIR MASS
   RETURNING FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO BE OF LIMITED
   INSTABILITY AND WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER LITTLE HEATING EXPECTED
   TO OCCUR TODAY IN WARM SECTOR.
   
   AS THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER SERN CO CONTINUES NEWD INTO
   CENTRAL NEB TONIGHT... A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT WILL ACCOMPANY THE WIND
   MAX ROTATING NEWD ACROSS ERN KS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE LAPSE RATES
   WILL STEEPEN RAPIDLY  WITH -25C AT 500 MB REACHING NERN KS BY 00Z.
   
   A STRONGLY FORCED NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION AT 16Z FROM JUST W OF
   ICT TO E OF OKC/DAL/ACT TO NEAR SAT WILL CONTINUE NE/E TO REACH WRN
   MO AND AR BORDERS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  WITH ALMOST NO CAPE
   CURRENTLY AHEAD OF LINE IN THE MOIST AIRMASS...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL
   BE LIMITED TO A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR 50 KT WITH ITS PASSAGE GIVEN
   SUPPORT FROM THE STRONG WIND FIELDS.
   
   HOWEVER THE PRIMARY THREAT OF A MORE ORGANIZED WIND DAMAGE EVENT
   WOULD BE WITH PORTION OF LINE THAT WILL BE MOVING NEWD INTO ERN KS
   DURING AFTERNOON WHERE THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND VIGOROUS DPVA
   WITH S/WV TROUGH  WILL BE FOCUSED.  ETA DOES INDICATE SOME MEAGER
   CAPE COULD DEVELOP WITH THE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES THIS AREA 
   ENHANCING THE SEVERE THREAT.  THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR ADDITIONAL
   DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE CURRENT LINE
   MOVING THRU ERN KS...HOWEVER THE MODELS SUGGEST  THAT THE LOW LEVEL
   DRYING MAY  BE TOO RAPID TO ALLOW SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP
   IN SUPPORT OF REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW TOPPED STORMS.  THERE WILL BE A
   MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN FORM IN ERN KS
   LATER THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES.
   
   
   FURTHER S HAVE REDUCED THREAT OF SEVERE ERN TX GIVEN THE WEAK
   INSTABILITY AND UPPER SUPPORT SHIFTING NEWD INTO ERN KS/OK.
   
   ..HALES/BANACOS.. 02/29/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 2000Z