SPC AC 040558
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1158 PM CST WED MAR 03 2004
   
   VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
   
   THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW
   JBR 35 SSW PBF 45 NW POE 30 E SAT 25 WNW JCT 40 W SPS 40 SW UMN 35
   WSW UNO 45 SSW JBR.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE
   P07 50 SSW CVS 15 ENE GAG 30 E STJ 35 N MLI 10 SW CGX IND 15 N UOX
   35 W 7R4 ...CONT... 15 SSE CRP 50 SSE LRD.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S CRP 35 WNW MFE
   ...CONT... 70 E DUG 10 E FHU 35 WSW TUS 45 NW GBN 35 WSW PRC 20 SSE
   4BL 40 SE GUC 20 WSW EHA 50 S DDC 20 W SLN 35 NW DSM 45 SSW LSE 15
   NNW MTW 85 E OSC ...CONT... 25 SSW BUF 15 SE ZZV 65 E BWG 15 SSE MSL
   35 ESE 7R4.
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF CNTRL THROUGH N TX
   INTO SERN OK...WRN/CNTRL AR AND NW LA...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
   LOWER AND MID MS VALLEYS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NWRN MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
   EJECT NEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS THURSDAY AS UPSTREAM IMPULSE DROPS SE
   INTO THE NWRN STATES. IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE AND
   ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE ASSOCIATED JET...SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AND
   LIFT NEWD THROUGH NWRN TX AND OK THURSDAY AND INTO THE MID MS VALLEY
   THURSDAY NIGHT. AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND LOW LEVEL JET
   INTENSIFIES...WARM FRONT NOW FROM AR WSWWD THROUGH SWRN TX WILL LIFT
   NWD THROUGH OK AND INTO MO...WHILE A DRY LINE DEVELOPS AND SWEEPS
   EWD THROUGH MUCH OF TX AND OK.
   
   
   ...SRN PLAINS THROUGH LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY REGIONS...
   
   LARGE WARM SECTOR WILL EXIST E OF DEVELOPING DRYLINE THROUGH MUCH OF
   TX AND SPREAD NWD INTO OK AND AR THURSDAY. THOUGH MARITIME TROPICAL
   AIR WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WILL CHARACTERIZE
   THE BOUNDARY LAYER...LIMITING FACTOR FOR SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION
   WILL BE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND AREAS OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING EARLY
   IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE 00Z RAOB DATA INDICATED THE ATMOSPHERE TO BE
   STRONGLY CAPPED TO SURFACE BASED STORMS OVER MUCH OF TX. BOTH THE
   RUC AND THE ETA RUNS ERODE THE CAP BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND
   DEVELOP PRECIPITATION IN THE WARM SECTOR. LATEST WV IMAGERY DOES
   IMPLY AN AREA OF MID/HIGH LEVEL ASCENT OVER NRN MEXICO SPREADING NWD
   THROUGH TX...POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD IMPULSE IN THE SRN
   STREAM. HOWEVER...NOT SURE IF THE VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH
   THIS FEATURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO ERODE THE CAP AS EARLY AS
   INDICATED IN THE MODELS. IF STORMS DEVELOP EARLY...WARM SECTOR WILL
   HAVE A MORE DIFFICULT TIME DESTABILIZING.
   IN ANY EVENT SURFACE BASED STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP IN WARM
   SECTOR AS HEIGHT FALLS AND FROM UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE SPREAD EWD. OTHER
   STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP FARTHER W INTO W TX ALONG SHARPENING DRYLINE
   AS CAP WEAKENS.
   
   DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND STRENGTHENING LOW-MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS
   WILL SUPPORT STRONG SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS
   THROUGHOUT THE WARM SECTOR WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KT AND
   0-2 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY FROM 300-500 M2/S2. ANY BREAKS IN THE
   CLOUDS/AREAS OF PRECIPITATION MAY ALLOW STORMS DEVELOPING E OF THE
   DRYLINE TO INTENSIFY DURING THE DAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
   SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES... ESPECIALLY IN MODERATE
   RISK AREA. BUT EXTENT AND DEGREE OF TORNADO THREAT WILL BE HIGHLY
   CONDITIONAL ON EXTENT OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY.
   
   OTHER STORMS WILL ALSO LIKELY DEVELOP FARTHER W ALONG THE DEVELOPING
   DRYLINE IN THE MORE STRONGLY FORCED REGIME AND MOVE EWD THROUGH TX
   DURING THE DAY. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A LINE OR LINE
   SEGMENTS BUT WITH POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. DAMAGING WIND
   AND LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY...BUT
   ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
   
   OVERNIGHT SEVERE THREAT...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED DAMAGING
   WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL SPREAD EWD AND NEWD INTO THE LOWER
   AND MID MS VALLEYS.
   
   ..DIAL.. 03/04/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1300Z