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Mar- 4-2004 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Public Severe Weather Outlook

The SPC is forecasting an outbreak of severe thunderstorms today and tonight across portions of the United States. This is an extremely dangerous situation. Please read the latest public statement about this event.

Categorical Graphic
2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
      
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Tornado Damaging Wind Large Hail
2000 UTC Tornado probabilities graphic   2000 UTC Damaging wind probabilities graphic   2000 UTC Large hail probabilities graphic
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   SPC AC 041947
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0147 PM CST THU MAR 04 2004
   
   VALID 042000Z - 051200Z
   
   THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E
   DUA 25 NNW DAL 45 SE SPS 20 ENE SPS 15 NE FSI 15 ENE OKC 30 NE BVO
   35 NNW JLN 35 NNE JLN 15 NNE UMN 25 WSW HRO 15 SW FSM 25 E DUA.
   
   THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE
   SEP 40 SSW SPS 35 ESE CSM 30 N CNU 20 S SZL 35 WNW CGI ARG TXK 60 W
   LFK 10 S AUS 50 W AUS 65 ENE JCT 10 NE SEP.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S
   CRP 50 S LRD ...CONT... 60 WNW COT 20 ENE BWD 10 NE CSM 30 ENE ICT
   30 N MLI 15 SE CGX 15 SE IND 30 SSW UOX 20 W 7R4.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW FHU 35 W TUS
   35 NW GBN 35 WSW PRC 20 SSE 4BL 45 SE GUC 35 NNW EHA 40 WNW CNK 40 E
   SUX 35 NW FRM 70 S DLH 15 SW IWD 25 WSW MQT 55 ENE ESC 30 SW APN 10
   NW DTW 35 SSE MIE 40 SSW MSL 40 W HUM.
   
   ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF NWRN TX/CNTRL
   AND ERN OK/EXTREME NWRN AR/SWRN MO/SERN KS...
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NERN TX
   NEWD INTO AR...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS NEWD INTO
   THE MIDWEST...
   
   ...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
   FROM PORTIONS OF TX/OK EWD INTO WRN AR/SWRN MO/SERN KS WITH THE
   POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TORNADOES AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS...
   
   ...SRN PLAINS/LWR MS VLY NWD TO MID MS VLY/MIDWEST...
   ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY UNFOLDING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.  VERY
   STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING UPPER LOW IS FORCING A SQUALL
   LINE THAT IS RACING ENEWD AT 60-65 KT. CURRENT EXTRAPOLATION HAS
   THE LINE TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM KOKC-KFWD-KAUS BY 21 UTC AND INTO
   SERN KS-WRN AR-ERN TX THIS EVENING.
   
   SATELLITE SHOWS BINOVC IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE LINE WHERE
   TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 70S.  GIVEN STEEP LAPSE
   RATES NOTED ON THE 18 UTC KFWD SOUNDING ATOP LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW
   POINTS...THE ADDED INSOLATION IS CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES OF
   1000-1500 J/KG.  THUS...THE LINE SHOULD MAINTAIN CHARACTER THROUGH
   THE EVENING AS IT MOVES ENEWD. OTHER TSTMS WILL LIKELY FORM
   IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE AND REMAIN DISCRETE BEFORE
   BEING QUICKLY OVERTAKEN BY THE LINE.
   
   MESOANALYSIS PLACES STATIONARY FRONT FROM KLAW-KOKC-KCNU THEN EWD
   INTO THE LWR OH VLY.  USING CURRENT STORM MOTION OF 200 DEGREES AT
   60 KT...HIGHEST STORM RELATIVE HELICITY PER 18 UTC KOUN SOUNDING/
   OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS EXTENDS NEWD FROM THE SURFACE LOW NEAR KSPS INTO
   CNTRL/SRN OK AND NCNTRL TX.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN ENOUGH
   FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...AND GIVEN STRONG LOW LEVEL TURNING IN THE
   HODOGRAPHS DOWNSTREAM...LONG-LIVED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRONG
   TORNADO OR TWO INVOF OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW.  OTHERWISE...DAMAGING
   WINDS...POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF 80 KT...WILL LIKELY CAUSE WIDESPREAD
   WIND DAMAGE OVER A LARGE PART OF SRN/ERN OK...CNTRL/NRN TX AND INTO
   THE WRN OZARKS THROUGH THE EVENING /WITHIN THE MDT/HIGH RISK AREAS/.
   LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS AS WELL...
   MAINLY UNDER 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER.
   
   THE LINE OF TSTMS WILL LIKELY ADVANCE NEWD INTO PARTS OF THE MIDWEST
   AND MID/LWR MS VLY BY 12 UTC FRIDAY WITH THE THREAT OF DAMAGING
   WINDS AND ISOLD TORNADOES GRADUALLY DECREASING.
   
   FARTHER SOUTH...SRN EDGE OF STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS WILL GRAZE S TX
   FROM KCOT-KVCT WHERE 18 UTC SOUNDINGS SHOW A MORE SUBSTANTIAL CAP. 
   AS A RESULT...THE SEVERE PROBABILITY GRADIENT DECREASES RAPIDLY
   ACROSS S TX.
   
   ..RACY.. 03/04/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0100Z
        
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