SPC AC 161249
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0649 AM CST TUE MAR 16 2004
   
   VALID 161300Z - 171200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE MOB 35 SSW TOI
   20 NNE CSG 35 W AHN 35 SSW TYS 65 W LOZ 55 WNW HTS 15 WSW UNI PKB 10
   WNW EKN 20 SSE SHD 20 WNW RIC 40 SSW WAL.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S P07 45 NE P07 15
   SW SJT 10 NW BWD 30 N ACT 45 NE CLL 15 ENE GLS ...CONT... 20 SSE CRP
   15 WNW LRD.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   BROAD TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL MOVE EWD TO THE ERN STATES
   DURING THIS PERIOD AS HEIGHTS RISE UPSTREAM ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
   PLAINS STATES. SHORT WAVE TROUGH INITIALLY LOCATED OVER THE MID MS
   VALLEY WILL TRACK NEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND TODAY
   WITH A SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS
   VALLEY.  A SURFACE LOW ANALYZED OVER CENTRAL/ERN KY AT 11Z WILL
   TRACK TOWARD WRN PA...AS A SECONDARY COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OVER FAR
   NERN NC THIS AFTERNOON.  A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED SWD FROM THE KY
   LOW ACROSS AL...WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH/COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD
   ACROSS MS TO SRN TX.
   
   ...MID ATLANTIC AND SERN STATES...
   EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS OVER THE ERN STATES IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
   FRONT COMBINED WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT THE AVAILABLE
   INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EWD.  THE
   GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE JUST OFF THE
   MID ATLANTIC COAST TO FL AND EWD ACROSS THE GULF STREAM.
   
   ...TX...
   A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER CO WITHIN NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
   TRACK SEWD ACROSS OK/TX TODAY. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY INITIALLY OVER
   SRN TX THIS MORNING WILL LIFT SLOWLY NWD LATER TODAY INTO CENTRAL
   TX.  ETA/GFS INDICATE SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS
   BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITHIN WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
   REGIME.  HOWEVER...GIVEN WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS FOR FOCUSED
   CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING...THUNDERSTORM
   POTENTIAL WILL BE LOW. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS
   REGION SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE
   ELEVATED.  STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL...HOWEVER...SUPPORT ISOLATED SMALL
   HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY.
   
   ..PETERS/GUYER.. 03/16/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1630Z