SPC AC 200051
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0651 PM CST FRI MAR 19 2004
   
   VALID 200100Z - 201200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW P07 45 SSW FST
   20 SSW FST 50 NE P07 20 SW JCT 10 SE HDO 30 WNW ALI 40 SSE ALI 45 N
   BRO.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE MTC 20 WNW MFD
   35 SSW TYS 10 N ANB 25 NNE 0A8 50 SW CBM 15 WSW GLH 20 SSW HOT 15 NW
   FSM 35 W JLN 45 NE CNU 10 SSW MKC 20 N LWD LSE 30 ENE MQT.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...OK NEWD INTO THE MIDDLE MS/LOWER OH VALLEY...
   MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS /CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
   60S/ EXISTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING TO THE S OF
   RETREATING WARM FRONT WHICH EXTENDED FROM W-CNTRL KS SEWD THROUGH
   N-CNTRL OK AND INTO CNTRL AR AS OF 00Z. ALTHOUGH THIS AIRMASS HAS
   BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG...00Z
   OUN/FWD/LZK SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A CAP. MOREOVER...
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM RUC DIAGNOSTICS INDICATE LITTLE
   OR NO SUGGESTION OF ANY LARGE-SCALE FORCING MECHANISMS.
   
   CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WARM SECTOR AIRMASS WILL REMAIN CAPPED
   THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD OWING TO THE
   STRENGTHENING CAP AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS THIS EVENING. BETTER
   POTENTIAL FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE FARTHER NE OVER THE
   MIDDLE MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS TONIGHT. HERE...STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ
   WILL FOCUS LOW-LEVEL MOIST/THERMAL ADVECTION FROM ERN MO EWD INTO
   LOWER OH VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES MAINLY AFTER 03Z. CAPPED SRN PLAINS
   AIRMASS SHOULD BE ADVECTED NEWD WITHIN THIS REGIME WITH ISENTROPIC
   ASCENT LIKELY ELIMINATING MUCH OF THE CIN. CORRESPONDING FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS REGION SHOW MUCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG FOR
   PARCELS LIFTED ABOVE SHALLOW NOCTURNAL INVERSION. ALTHOUGH MARGINAL
   HAIL POTENTIAL WILL EXIST WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...GENERALLY WEAK
   SHEAR THROUGH THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER SHOULD LIMIT STORM
   ORGANIZATION.
   
   ..MEAD.. 03/20/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0600Z