SPC AC 270035
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0635 PM CST FRI MAR 26 2004
VALID 270100Z - 271200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 N
GFK 15 NW FSD 35 ESE GRI 20 SSW CNK 20 ESE P28 55 NNW ABI 40 ESE P07
...CONT... 75 S MRF 50 NNE ROW 35 SSW LAA 35 NNE SNY 25 S 81V 25 SE
4BQ 15 SSE GDV 60 NNE ISN.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W MRF 35 ENE 4CR
35 ESE ABQ 35 N SOW 15 N PRC 50 NE IGM CDC 10 WSW RKS 50 ENE COD 45
NNW GGW ...CONT... 10 WNW RRT 20 WSW AXN 30 NNW OTG FOD 25 NW MLI 40
NNW DNV 25 NNE IND 55 E BMG 25 E OWB 35 NNE DYR 20 NW TYR 20 ESE JCT
35 SE DRT.
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS...
...NRN PLAINS...
INFLUENCE OF UPSTREAM TROUGH IS JUST NOW BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE ROCKIES...INTO THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. THIS FORCING APPEARS TO
BE BIMODAL WITH THE STRONGER LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTING NEWD ACROSS THE
NRN ROCKIES...AND A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING EWD ACROSS
AZ INTO NM. LATEST THINKING IS A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
CONVECTION...BOTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...AND THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL
OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
00Z SOUNDINGS FROM RAP AND LBF INDICATE SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY
SURGING NWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WITH CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF
1000J/KG EXPECTED TO SURGE ATOP COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE. RAP
SOUNDING FAVORS BOUNDARY LAYER BASED ACTIVITY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS BEFORE COOLING FORCES CONVECTION INTO AN ELEVATED FASHION.
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE DOMINATE STORM MODE
EARLY...WITH AN EVOLUTION TOWARD MORE LINEAR ACTIVITY ALONG THE COLD
FRONT LATE. ACTIVITY FARTHER NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF ND WILL
REMAIN HIGHLY ELEVATED AND DRIVEN BY LLJ.
...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
LOW LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT EWD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES
TOWARD WEST TX LATE IN THE PERIOD. UNTIL THEN...STRONG CAP JUST
EAST OF THE DRY LINE WILL PREVENT ONGOING ACTIVITY FROM SPREADING
TOO FAR OFF THE ZONE OF GREATEST LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE. WITH
TIME...LLJ WILL INCREASE AND ASCENT WILL ENHANCE OTHER MORE ELEVATED
STORMS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
LATE. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. CONVECTION
SHOULD EXPAND MARKEDLY LATE TONIGHT WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION ZONE
NEWD INTO OK AND KS.
..DARROW.. 03/27/2004
...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0600Z
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