SPC AC 270541
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1141 PM CST FRI MAR 26 2004
   
   VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W
   CDS 60 NE AMA 30 N DDC 55 S EAR 35 NW OFK 25 NNE SUX 15 SSW DSM 35
   ESE IRK 20 N VIH 35 SE HRO PRX 15 SSW FTW 30 N ABI 20 W CDS.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE EWN 20 SSE GSP
   30 NNE HOP MDH 15 N JBR 25 NNW ELD 25 NNW GGG 35 NNE ACT 45 SW BWD
   60 NE BGS 30 NE PVW 45 NNW CAO 25 SW LHX 30 NNE LHX 35 WSW GLD 20
   ENE AIA 45 N MOT ...CONT... 85 NNW CMX 15 NW AUW 10 NE MMO 15 E MIE
   30 NNE HGR 10 S JFK.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/SRN
   PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY REGION...
   
   ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...
   
   LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ON THE ORDER OF 60-90M WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
   MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS LATER TODAY AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS
   MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY BY
   28/00Z.  LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
   EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS MAIN UPPER SPEED MAX DIGS SEWD TOWARD THE
   4-CORNERS REGION.  SRN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT IN
   PIECES WITH MAIN TROUGH AXIS EXPECTED TO EXTEND ACROSS WRN OK BY
   EARLY EVENING.
   
   LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BOUNDARY LAYER WILL WARM/DEEPEN
   ACROSS MUCH OF NWRN TX ALLOWING DRY LINE TO MIX EWD INTO SWRN
   OK...ARCING SWWD INTO WCNTRL TX.  LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES ACROSS THE
   WARM SECTOR WOULD INITIALLY FAVOR A CONTINUED MOISTENING ACROSS THE
   SRN PLAINS.  HOWEVER...A TIME SERIES OF SFC DEW POINTS ACROSS THE
   NRN GULF OF MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SERN TX
   SUGGEST DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO ENTRAIN INTO THIS REGION.  AS A
   RESULT...A NARROW AXIS OF MODERATE
   INSTABILITY...1500-2000J/KG...WILL DEVELOP AND EXTEND NWD ACROSS
   NWRN TX INTO WRN OK...AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SRN KS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
    THIS APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN ZONE OF CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL
   SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WHERE SFC DEW POINTS CAN HOLD NEAR
   OR JUST ABOVE 60F.
   
   SUSTAINED LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES TO GENERATE WEAK
   ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS NRN OK/SRN KS ATTM. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
   GRADUALLY EXPAND AND DEEPEN AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. WITH
   SIGNIFICANT CLOUD CLOVER EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WARM
   SECTOR...FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY.  OTHER ACTIVITY MAY TRY TO
   DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE BUT WEAKER CONVERGENCE WILL LIMIT
   COVERAGE INTO NWRN TX. ALTHOUGH EARLY CONVECTION MAY INITIALLY BE
   SUPERCELL IN NATURE...A SQUALL LINE WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE
   HAIL SHOULD EVOLVE AND BECOME THE PRIMARY SEVERE MODE AS FRONT
   SWEEPS EWD ACROSS KS/OK.  DAMAGING WINDS MAY SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF
   WRN MO/NWRN AR BEFORE CONVECTION BLEEDS OFF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. 
   EARLY IN THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION...SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED
   TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE FROM SCNTRL KS INTO SWRN OK.
   
   ...NRN PLAINS...
   
   EARLY MORNING ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRIEFLY ATTAIN SEVERE
   LEVELS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE DRIVEN
   MAINLY BY STRONG LLJ AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS.  SHARPENING FRONTAL
   ZONE SHOULD FORCE A NARROW LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS IT SPREADS EWD
   INTO MN WHERE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL
   SUPPORT A FEW STRONG WINDS GUSTS.
   
   ..DARROW/JEWELL.. 03/27/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1300Z