SPC AC 271259
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0659 AM CST SAT MAR 27 2004
   
   VALID 271300Z - 281200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW
   CDS 50 NE AMA 45 SE EHA 35 NNE EHA 35 WNW GCK 30 NNW GCK 15 SSW HLC
   55 NE HLC 20 E GRI 35 NW OMA 35 W DSM 20 W IRK 40 NNW COU 35 NNE SGF
   15 E FYV 10 NW PGO 20 ESE DUA 50 N FTW 30 SSE SPS 70 SSE CDS 45 S
   CDS 20 WNW CDS.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE
   MHE 40 W YKN 35 NE ANW 35 SSW PIR 50 SW JMS 40 ENE JMS 10 S FAR 40 N
   ATY 30 WSW BKX 30 SSE MHE.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE EWN 20 SSE GSP
   30 NNE HOP MDH 15 N JBR 25 NNW ELD 40 NNE TYR 30 NW ACT 50 ENE JCT
   45 SSW SJT 40 S BGS 50 S LBB 20 SSW AMA 45 NNW CAO 25 SW LHX 30 NNE
   LHX 35 WSW GLD 20 ENE AIA 45 N MOT ...CONT... 45 ENE ELO 25 ESE RHI
   30 NE MTW 15 E MIE 30 NNE HGR 10 S JFK.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN
   PLAINS...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A SMALL AREA OF THE NRN
   PLAINS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LOWER
   48 STATES THIS PERIOD WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE BEING A DEEP
   TROUGH EDGING EWD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. SEVERAL VORT MAXIMA/SHORT
   WAVE TROUGHS WERE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH AND LATEST
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA SUGGEST THE STRONGEST
   OF THESE IMPULSES WERE LOCATED OVER ERN MT...THE NRN GREAT BASIN...
   AND ERN NM/CO. STRONG DEEP LAYER MERIDIONAL FLOW ON ERN FLANK OF THE
   LARGE SCALE TROUGH HAS RESULTED IN AN EXTENSIVE WARM SECTOR OVER THE
   PLAINS STATES FROM TX TO SD. RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED
   DEEPENING LEE-SIDE CYCLONE OVER ERN CO WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS
   EXTENDING NWD FROM WRN NEB INTO ND. PRIMARY SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED
   WITH MT SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO DEVELOP ACROSS SD AND INTO MN THROUGH
   TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE CO LOW...ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG MID LEVEL
   IMPULSE EJECTING NEWD FROM NM/CO...WILL TRACK ACROSS KS/OK THROUGH
   TODAY AS A COLD FRONT SURGES SEWD OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS IN ITS
   WAKE...AND DRYLINE SPREADS EWD FROM THE TX PNHDL TO WRN/CNTRL OK.
   
   ...KS/OK/WRN MO...
   DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING STEADILY WITHIN BROAD PLUME OF
   ISENTROPIC LIFT AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ACROSS ERN
   KS/NEB THIS MORNING AND THIS HAS BEEN WELL FCST BY SHORT TERM
   MODELS. ON THE OTHER HAND...STORMS FORMING ACROSS OK/TX PNHDLS AND
   CNTRL TX AHEAD OF NM/CO IMPULSE HAVE BEEN POORLY FCST BY MOST SHORT
   TERM MODELS AND THIS LENDS UNCERTAINTY TO SEVERE WEATHER FCST FOR
   TODAY.
   
   LATEST INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL
   IMPULSE NOW SPREADING ACROSS WARM SECTOR FROM NM/CO MAY BE ARRIVING
   TOO EARLY FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE.
   HOWEVER...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH WELL ESTABLISHED EML
   COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING LARGE SCALE FORCING/HEIGHT FALLS WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SCATTERED TO
   NUMEROUS SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS CONVECTION ACROSS
   THE SRN PLAINS WARM SECTOR CONTINUES TO INCREASE INTO THIS
   AFTERNOON...POCKETS OF GREATER SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY IN
   COMBINATION WITH MESOSCALE FORCING NEAR SURFACE LOW/DRYLINE/COLD
   FRONT SHOULD FAVOR A FEW LONGER-LIVED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
   HAIL/DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADO POTENTIAL. A FOCUSED AREA FAVORABLE
   FOR ROTATING STORMS COULD EVOLVE ACROSS NWRN AND CNTRL OK...AND
   PERHAPS INTO SRN KS LATER TODAY. ALTHOUGH POINT FCST DATA SUGGEST
   MESOSCALE AND STORM SCALE ENVIRONMENT THESE AREAS COULD SUPPORT A
   SIGNIFICANT REPORT OR TWO. HOWEVER... UNCERTAINTY ABOUT STORM
   COVERAGE...GIVEN STRONGEST FORCING WITH THE UPPER IMPULSE MAY BE
   PAST THE AREA...SUGGESTS HIGHER-END SLGT RISK PROBABILITIES ARE
   STILL WARRANTED.
   
   FURTHERMORE...IN THE WAKE OF MORNING/AFTERNOON STORMS ACROSS
   OK/KS...A SMALL WINDOW OF GREATER DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR AHEAD
   OF EWD SURGING COLD FRONT OVER WRN KS. ANY  ONGOING/PREFRONTAL
   CELLULAR CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BECOME INCREASINGLY LINEAR AS THE
   COLD FRONT SWEEPS EWD. A SEVERE SQUALL LINE SHOULD DEVELOP ON THE
   FRONT WITH HAIL AND WIND POTENTIAL INCREASING FROM CNTRL KS ESEWD
   ACROSS NRN OK...AND INTO NERN OK AND WRN MO AFTER DARK.
   
   ...NRN PLAINS...
   SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY
   VIGOROUS CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION FROM NERN
   NEB...CNTRL SD AND SERN ND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RELATIVELY DEEP
   LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
   PERSISTENT FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW SHOULD
   SUSTAIN A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR HAIL. OVERALL
   STORM ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE LIMITED BY WEAK CLOUD BEARING SHEAR IN
   DEEP SLY FLOW...AND FCST OF GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INSTABILITY.
   
   ..CARBIN/JEWELL.. 03/27/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1630Z