SPC AC 271844
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 PM CST SAT MAR 27 2004
VALID 272000Z - 281200Z
THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW
P28 10 NNW P28 30 SSW ICT 15 SSW PNC 45 ESE END 25 ENE CSM 35 SSE
GAG 40 WSW P28.
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W
CSM 50 S DDC 20 N DDC 10 N HLC 20 ESE BBW 15 S OFK 45 NNE OMA DSM
COU FYV 50 ESE SPS 30 NNW ABI 75 NW ABI 35 W CSM.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE ELO 35 ESE RHI
35 NE MTW 10 ENE MIE 15 NNE CGI 30 NW ELD 35 N GGG 10 ENE ACT 50 ENE
JCT 45 SSW SJT 25 SE MAF 20 ESE PVW 35 ENE AMA 60 SSW LBL 40 S EHA
15 NW SAF 20 E FMN 10 NW MTJ 20 W EGE 10 SE AKO 25 ESE PHP 65 NE
MOT.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE EWN 35 NNE FLO
35 WNW GSO 30 NW DAN 35 SW WAL.
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
NWRN OK AND PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL KS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM
SRN NEB/SWRN IA SWD INTO NWRN TX...
...WRN/CNTRL OK INTO NWRN TX...
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS E OF DRYLINE AND W OF TSTM CLUSTERS ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S AND WHEN COUPLED WITH
MODEST BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE RESULTING
IN MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. MOREOVER...REGIONAL PROFILERS FROM ERN
NM INTO WRN OK INDICATE INCREASING MID-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF
APPROACHING TROUGH WITH 50-60KTS COMMON AT 6KM AGL ACROSS THIS AREA.
CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION AND INCREASE IN DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS
ANTICIPATED ACROSS REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WITH
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOMING QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS
WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW TORNADOES WILL EXIST AS STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ BETWEEN 21
AND 00Z ENHANCES LOW-LEVEL SHEAR E OF DRYLINE FROM WRN OK NWD INTO
N-CNTRL OK/FAR S-CNTRL KS.
TSTMS SHOULD TEND TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AS COLD FRONT
OVERTAKES ONGOING TSTMS WITH A CONTINUED WIND/HAIL THREAT EWD ACROSS
OK.
...SRN NEB/SWRN IA SWD INTO KS/WRN MO...
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLUSTER OF TSTMS OVER CNTRL/ERN KS INTO SERN NEB
WILL POSE AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NEWD THROUGH
THE CNTRL PLAINS. MORE VIGOROUS TSTM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN CONFINED
TO COLD FRONT WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY AND STRONGER SHEAR COEXIST.
LARGELY MERIDIONAL MID AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS NEARLY PARALLEL TO
FRONT SUGGEST A LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE WITH DAMAGING WINDS. VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATES ON 18Z DDC SOUNDING AND CORRESPONDINGLY LOW WBZ
HEIGHTS ALSO INDICATE A LARGE HAIL THREAT.
EXPECT A FAIRLY CONTINUOUS SQUALL LINE WITH DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE
HAIL SWD ALONG COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN NEB AND KS
INTO SWRN IA AND WRN MO BY TONIGHT.
..MEAD.. 03/27/2004
...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0100Z
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