SPC AC 301639
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1039 AM CST TUE MAR 30 2004
   
   VALID 301630Z - 311200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S
   TYS 30 NNW MCN 35 NNE DHN 35 W MEI 20 SW UOX 40 S MKL 45 SW BNA 35 N
   LEX 55 W HTS 35 NE JKL 50 S TYS.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E DAB 15 SSW CTY
   ...CONT... 30 SSW MOB 50 NW GPT 15 N BTR 35 WNW MLU 40 S UNO 30 WNW
   MDH 25 S RFD 15 ENE MKE 45 WNW MBS 25 NNE MTC ...CONT... 20 SSW ERI
   30 SW MGW 40 NNE BKW 35 NW GSO 20 NNE FAY 15 SE OAJ.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW FHU 65 WSW SOW
   30 S INW 35 NNE SOW 75 SSW GNT 35 NW TCS 30 S DMN.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE SERN U.S.
   THROUGH THE SRN OH VALLEY...
   
   ...SERN U.S. THROUGH ERN KY...
   
   THIS MORNING SATELLITE DATA SHOW MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER
   CNTRL MS WITHIN A ZONE OF ASCENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH EXIT REGION OF
   AN UPPER JET. THIS FEATURE WILL EJECT EWD THROUGH BASE OF LARGE
   UPPER TROUGH AND INTO AL AND GA TODAY. COLD AIR ALOFT WITH -28C AT 6
   KM ALONG AND N OF THE JET STREAK IN CONJUNCTION WITH SURFACE HEATING
   
   WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...
   MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE
   UPPER 40S WILL LIMIT MLCAPE TO AOB 800 J/KG. BAND OF MODERATE TO
   STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
   MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT SHEAR IN THE 0-5 KM LAYER FOR ORGANIZED STORMS
   INCLUDING LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS. ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH JET EXIT
   REGION AND DESTABILIZATION WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
   STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY BE A LIMITING
   FACTOR...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION
   MAY SUPPORT UPDRAFTS VIGOROUS ENOUGH FOR A LARGE HAIL THREAT.
   ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
   
   FARTHER N AN ELONGATED VORT MAX IS MOVING EWD THROUGH TN AND KY.
   VISIBLE IMAGERY ALSO SUGGESTS THIS AREA WILL RECEIVE SUBSTANTIAL
   HEATING AND CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION AS COLDER MID LEVEL
   TEMPERATURES ADVECT EWD WITH TIME. SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO 
   DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. SHEAR PROFILES
   ARE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS IN THIS AREA INCLUDING LOW
   TOPPED SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
   
   ...OH AND IND...
   
   COLD AIR ALOFT AND POCKETS OF SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
   DESTABILIZATION AND INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
   AND AHEAD OF MID LEVEL VORT MAX. THOUGH SURFACE HEATING WILL NOT BE
   AS STRONG AS FARTHER S...INSTABILITY MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT TO
   SUPPORT THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
   
   ..DIAL/TAYLOR.. 03/30/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 2000Z