SPC AC 092009
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0309 PM CDT FRI APR 09 2004
   
   VALID 092000Z - 101200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE
   SEP 10 SW SEP 25 WNW SEP 30 NW MWL 15 S SPS 30 SE LTS 30 ENE CDS 50
   NNE CDS 35 S GAG 30 ESE GAG 25 WSW END 10 NNE TUL 15 NE FYV 55 SSE
   HRO 25 ENE HOT 20 NW ELD 25 WNW SHV 55 WSW TYR 30 SE SEP.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW FMY VRB.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM P07 50 S BGS 10 NE
   BGS 50 NNW BGS 50 ENE HOB 20 NW HOB 15 SSW ALM 50 N TUS 30 W PHX 65
   WSW PRC 35 SSE IGM 45 NE IGM 20 ESE BCE 40 W U28 55 N PUC 45 ENE MLD
   IDA 35 SW WEY 30 E WEY COD 45 ESE WRL 20 NNE LAR 45 ENE DEN 30 NE
   LAA 20 W GCK 30 E ICT 30 WNW SGF 10 NW POF 20 ENE DYR 35 SE MKL 20
   SSE TUP 50 ESE GWO 50 NNE HEZ 25 NE POE 40 N HOU 50 E SAT 60 SSE
   DRT.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN OK...NCNTRL
   TX...NERN TX...
   
   ...OK/N TX/WRN AR/TX PANHANDLE...
   ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A WARM FRONT ACROSS ERN OK WITH A
   STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING WWD ACROSS NW OK INTO THE OK PANHANDLE.
   SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT ARE IN THE
   LOWER TO MID 50S F WHERE A SHARP INSTABILITY GRADIENT IS PRESENT. AS
   SFC TEMPS WARM LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL
   CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS NERN OK
   INTO NWRN AR THIS EVENING. MARGINALLY STEEP LAPSE RATES (6.5 C/KM)
   AND COLD 500 MB TEMPS (-17 TO -18 C) WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE
   HAIL AS THE LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION MOVES ENEWD ACROSS FAR NERN OK
   AND WRN AR.
   
   CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS MORE PROBLEMATIC FARTHER SOUTHWEST ACROSS N
   TX AND SW OK. A BROAD BAND OF CUMULUS IS EVIDENT ON VIS SATELLITE
   IMAGERY LOCATED FROM OKC SWD TO SEP WITH ANOTHER SMALLER BAND NEAR
   THE WICHITA MTNS IN SW OK. A CAPPING INVERSION EXISTS SOUTH OF THE
   RED RIVER BUT MLCAPE VALUES HAVE RISEN TO ABOUT 1200 J/KG ACROSS SRN
   OK. IN ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS INCREASED WEST OF
   DALLAS/FT WORTH AND THIS WILL BE THE FAVORED AREA FOR STORM
   INITIATION AS THE CAP WEAKENS FROM 20 TO 22Z. THE STORMS SHOULD
   SPREAD ENEWD INTO THE RED RIVER AREA WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
   MAXIMIZED TO AROUND 45 KT SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY. THE
   MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL RESULT IN A
   THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST AS
   THE STORMS EVOLVE AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OVER NE TX AND
   SE OK EARLY THIS EVENING. THE CONVECTION WILL ALSO HAVE A WIND
   DAMAGE POTENTIAL ACROSS SRN OK EXTENDING SW TO THE FTW AREA WHERE
   LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE CURRENTLY THE STEEPEST. THE CONVECTION
   WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS IT SPREADS EWD INTO SWRN AR
   LATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LEAST DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ACROSS THE
   SRN PART OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. AS THE CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVES EWD
   INTO SRN AR AWAY FROM THE INSTABILITY AXIS...THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
   WILL DECREASE.
   
   FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE...A SWIFTLY MOVING COLD FRONT
   WILL INCREASE CONVERGENCE AND SCATTERED STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE.
   ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEAK...COLD TEMPS ALOFT WILL
   RESULT IN AN ISOLATED HAIL OR WIND DAMAGE THREAT. LATER TONIGHT...AS
   THE STORMS SPREAD EWD ACROSS NCNTRL TX/SRN OK...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
   WILL INCREASE AND AN ISOLATED HAIL/WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL CONTINUE
   IF CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE REGION.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 04/09/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0100Z