SPC AC 141226
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0726 AM CDT WED APR 14 2004
VALID 141300Z - 151200Z
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE ECG 30 ENE RWI
25 NW RDU 25 SW LYH 45 SW MRB 20 SE IPT 40 SW ALB 30 W EEN 10 NE
BOS.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NNW DVL 35 WNW GFK
20 WNW FAR 55 NE ABR 35 S MBG 30 ENE RAP 30 ENE DGW 30 N LAR 50 SW
DEN 40 SE TAD 40 SSE RTN 35 S 4SL 20 NNE FMN 45 ESE CNY 35 E PUC 50
WNW PUC 50 WSW OGD 20 SSW PIH 40 NW TWF 45 NW WMC 45 E RBL 25 WNW
RBL ACV.
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE AND DE-AMPLIFYING LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS FORECAST ACROSS
THE CONUS THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD. IN THE E...DEEP...
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER VA/NC AT 12Z WILL SHIFT EWD OFF THE COAST
BY THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING HEIGHTS FROM THE PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY. IN THE W...UPPER LOW OFF THE WA/BC COAST
WILL OPEN THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A BROAD REGION OF CYCLONIC FLOW
DEVELOPING EWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS.
AT THE SURFACE...PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL PERSIST FROM NJ INTO
SRN ENGLAND TODAY WHILE SECONDARY COLD FRONT/TROUGH SHIFTS SEWD
ACROSS VA/CAROLINA PIEDMONT AND INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC BY THIS
EVENING. FARTHER W...BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY FROM THE
WRN GREAT LAKES WWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE NRN ROCKIES.
SURFACE LOW OVER CNTRL MT THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY MOVE/DEVELOP EWD
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY INTO WRN SD BY EVENING WITH ATTENDANT PACIFIC
COLD FRONT CONCURRENTLY PUSHING EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL/CNTRL ROCKIES.
...MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND...
FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF VORTICITY MAX ROTATING AROUND MID/UPPER
LOW IS SUPPORTING ONGOING CLUSTER OF TSTMS CURRENTLY OVER THE
DELMARVA WITHIN WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT PER 12Z WAL SOUNDING.
EWD PROGRESSION OF MID-LEVEL COLD POOL AND RESULTANT STEEPENING OF
LAPSE RATES MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
THE DAY ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM ERN VA NWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND.
THUNDER THREAT SHOULD END BY EARLY TO MID EVENING AS STRONGEST
DYNAMIC FORCING MOVES EWD INTO THE ATLANTIC.
...PACIFIC NW INTO THE NRN PLAINS...
14/12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES /I.E. 7.5-8.5 C/KM/ ARE ALREADY PRESENT FROM THE PACIFIC NW
EWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS. ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY-LAYER REMAINS QUITE DRY
ACROSS THE REGION...THE STEEP LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH INCREASED
DYNAMIC FORCING IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK MOVING
INTO THE GREAT BASIN SHOULD PROMOTE ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL TSTM
DEVELOPMENT. DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER AND INVERTED-V PROFILES
EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG
WIND GUSTS. OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE LIMITED BY
THE ANTICIPATED WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES...AND WEAKER
SHEAR PROFILES FARTHER E ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WHERE AIRMASS IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE.
STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ OVER LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE MAY SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL ELEVATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT EWD ACROSS ND OVERNIGHT.
..MEAD.. 04/14/2004
...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1630Z
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