SPC AC 170100
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0800 PM CDT FRI APR 16 2004
   
   VALID 170100Z - 171200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW
   OMA 45 SSW SPW 15 NNE MCW VOK LNR DBQ 35 ENE OTM 35 SW DSM 30 ESE
   OMA 15 NW OMA.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW FCA 45 SW CTB
   HLN BTM DLN JAC BPI 55 ESE SLC U24 ELY 50 N TPH 40 SW TPH 65 ESE BIH
   60 N NID 45 SW BIH 30 NNE SCK UKI EKA EUG OLM SEA 20 NE BLI.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE ROC 25 NNE BFD
   YNG 15 NNE FWA MMO LWD BIE OLU OFK FSD RWF 70 NNE MSP MQT.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MLS 30 SW DIK Y22 60
   N PHP RAP 50 SSW GCC 50 WNW SHR BIL MLS.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS IA AND UPPER MS
   VALLEY...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER AIR PATTERN FEATURES TROUGHS OFF E COAST...OVER W COAST AND
   OVER N-CENTRAL CANADA. SEVERAL MINOR/LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS
   ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD RAPIDLY AMIDST ENHANCED/ZONAL JET FLOW
   BETWEEN SRN STATES RIDGE AND CANADIAN TROUGH.  AT SFC...WAVY FRONTAL
   ZONE IS ANALYZED FROM ERN WI SWWD ACROSS NRN/NWRN IA...SERN
   NEB...AND NWRN KS.  FRONT SHOULD SAG SWD SOMEWHAT THROUGH REMAINDER
   PERIOD ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS...REMAINING QUASISTATIONARY FROM S
   RIVER TO LM.
   
   ...UPPER MS VALLEY TO SWRN GREAT LAKES...
   STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS UNDERWAY ATTM WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND
   AND LARGE HAIL...IN REGIME OF HIGH LCL AND ROUGHLY 1000 J/KG MLCAPE
   BASED ON OAX/DVN RAOBS.  REF WW 75 AND LATEST ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE
   DISCUSSION FOR NOWCAST SITUATION ACROSS IA PORTION OF CATEGORICAL
   SLGT RISK AREA.
   
   AFTER DARK CONVECTION WILL BECOME ROOTED IN MORE ELEVATED LAYER OF
   INSTABILITY...AS SFC DIABATIC COOLING DECOUPLES BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS
   PROCESS WILL DEVELOP 30-40 KT SWLY LLJ...ENHANCING SR INFLOW AND
   PROVIDING AT LEAST MARGINAL MOISTURE TO SUSTAIN CLUSTER OF TSTMS
   ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY.  STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE
   OVER REGION -- 8-9 DEG C/KM IN 700-500 MB LAYER.  RUC SOUNDINGS AND
   MOISTENING OF 750-850 MB LAYER IN OAX RAOB EACH YIELD ROUGHLY
   1000-1500 J/G ELEVATED MUCAPE...WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH BOTH
   WITH EWD EXTENT ACROSS MS VALLEY AND WITH TIME TONIGHT.  MEANWHILE 
   ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORT ORGANIZED MULTICELLS
   AND LINE SEGMENTS...LARGE HAIL BEING MAIN THREAT AFTER DARK.
   SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH EWD EXTENT AS
   CONVECTION REACHES AND CROSSES LM LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
   MORNING.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 04/17/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0600Z