SPC AC 171252
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0752 AM CDT SAT APR 17 2004
   
   VALID 171300Z - 181200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N
   JHW 30 ENE PIT 25 S ZZV 15 ENE MIE 30 WSW MMO 15 NNW OTM 20 ESE OMA
   25 NE YKN 35 ESE ATY 40 NE MSP 30 SW IMT APN.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE PWM 30 NW EWR
   25 NNW EKN 30 WSW UNI 20 SW LUK 25 SSW HUF 15 NNW SPI 30 N IRK 20
   WNW P35 EMP 35 E CSM 25 NNE ABI 10 NNW DRT ...CONT... 20 W DUG 80 NW
   TCS 15 SE GUP 75 NW GUP 40 NE GCN 45 SSE IGM 10 SE TRM 45 NNW SAN 10
   SW PRB 35 E UKI 30 NW MHS 60 SE EUG 15 SE DLS 30 ENE ALW 15 NNW S06
   80 NW FCA.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW ISN 10 SSE ISN
   40 N DIK BIS 20 N JMS 10 NE GFK 10 NNW RRT.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY
   THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AREA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL COMMENCE LATER TODAY OVER THE CNTRL HIGH
   PLAINS AS WRN U.S. SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS NEWD INTO THE SRN AND
   CNTRL ROCKIES. WRN PORTION OF FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE
   GREAT LAKES SWWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL MOVE NWD AS A WARM
   FRONT AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY BY THIS EVENING.
   DRYLINE WILL PERSIST OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS.
   
   
   ...UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES AREA...
   
   
   PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO
   UPPER 50S CURRENTLY RESIDES S OF FRONT OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS AND
   LOWER/MID MS VALLEY. THIS MOISTURE WILL RETURN NWD INTO THE UPPER MS
   VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES AREA TODAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NWD IN
   RESPONSE TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS. WARM SECTOR SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY
   UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG AS SURFACE HEATING
   COMMENCES AND MOISTURE ADVECTS NWD UNDERNEATH THE ELEVATED MIXED
   LAYER. THE WARM SECTOR WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED TO SURFACE BASED
   STORMS MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...SEVERAL HOURS OF MIXING AND
   FRONTAL CONVERGENCE MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE STORMS OVER IA
   OR ERN NEB/SD. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING
   ALONG AND N OF THE FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF SRN MN AS THE LOW LEVEL
   JET INTENSIFIES. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONSOLIDATE INTO AN
   MCS AS IT SPREADS EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE
   SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY WITH INITIAL STORMS. LARGE
   HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREAT EARLY IN THE CONVECTIVE
   EVOLUTION. HOWEVER...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND MAY INCREASE AS THE
   ACTIVITY CONSOLIDATES INTO AN MCS.
   
   
   FARTHER E OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY...WEAKER CAP SUGGESTS
   OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF SURFACE FRONT OR OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
   ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
   THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH MID EVENING.
   
   
   ...CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   
   THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE E OF THE DRYLINE
   TODAY WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. HOWEVER...A SUBSTANTIAL
   CAP ALREADY EXIST OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA. ISOLATED STORMS MIGHT
   INITIATE NEAR THE DRYLINE WHERE IT MAY BE POSSIBLE TO MIX THROUGH
   THE INVERSION. IR AND WV IMAGERY SHOW A PLUME OF HIGH CLOUDS
   SPREADING NEWD THROUGH NM. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD REDUCE INSOLATION AND
   MIXING IN VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE AS THEY CONTINUE NEWD AND... THIS
   LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION.
   THEREFORE...WILL KEEP ONLY CONDITIONAL LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR
   THIS AREA.
   
   ..DIAL/GUYER.. 04/17/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1630Z