SPC AC 200103
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0803 PM CDT MON APR 19 2004
   
   VALID 200100Z - 201200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE
   CDS 60 NW ABI 45 ENE BGS 20 NNE BGS 35 NNW BGS 20 WNW LBB 45 WSW AMA
   20 NE DHT 50 S GLD 40 ENE GLD 25 SSE MCK 45 NE HLC 15 WNW CNK 10 ENE
   MHK 30 S TOP 30 SSW OJC 50 ENE CNU 20 NNW JLN BVO 20 E CSM 30 ESE
   CDS.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE
   ITH 40 NNE PSB 30 ENE PIT 35 S CAK 35 N ZZV 25 ESE MFD 20 SSE CLE 20
   SE ERI 20 SSE ROC 15 W SYR 20 SSW SYR 10 ENE ITH 10 ENE ITH.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S MRF 25 SE CNM 20
   ENE ROW 60 ENE 4CR 40 SW LVS 4BL 15 W DPG 35 SW BOI 15 SSW BKE 10
   ENE PDT 30 ENE EPH 45 NW 63S ...CONT... 55 NNW MOT 45 ESE MOT 25 WSW
   JMS 40 NNE ABR 30 W MKT 25 WSW DBQ 30 N BMI 20 N DNV 10 NNW MIE 40
   ESE FWA 45 ESE DTW ...CONT... 15 ENE PSM 40 S MRB 30 NNW HKY 15 NNW
   AVL 35 SSE TYS 20 NE CHA 45 S MKL 10 WSW PBF 25 NNW GGG 50 N CLL 35
   SE SAT 55 S LRD.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF W TX...WRN OK
   AND KS...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NE OH...NW PA
   AND SW NY...
   
   ...W TX/TX PANHANDLE/NW OK/KS...
   
   SCATTERED STRONG STORMS ARE ONGOING ON THE CAPROCK ALONG AN AXIS OF
   MODERATE INSTABILITY RUNNING NNE TO SSW FROM NW OK TO THE TRANSPECOS
   REGION. THE CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY SPREADING NEWD ALONG A FRONTAL
   BOUNDARY ORIENTED FROM THE TX PANHANDLE EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS NW OK
   AND SE KS. THE CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS NW TX AND OK. AS THE UPPER-TROUGH
   LIFTS NEWD...THE GREATEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL OCCUR ACROSS NW OK
   MOVING INTO SRN KS LATE THIS EVENING. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
   STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING ACROSS THIS AREA...MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
   INCREASE. THIS COUPLED WITH THE ASCENT...WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THE
   CONVECTION AS IT TRACKS NEWD ACROSS THE NRN PART OF THE SLIGHT RISK
   AREA OVERNIGHT. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES
   ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND WRN KS. THIS WILL BE THE AREA WITH THE
   GREATEST HAIL THREAT. IN ADDITION...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR (0-6KM
   SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KT) COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
   MAKE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE ESPECIALLY EWD
   ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NW OK TO SERN KS WHERE PRECIPITABLE
   WATER VALUES ARE HIGHER.
   
   FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS...SCATTERED STRONG
   STORMS ARE ONGOING. DUE TO THE INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR IN PLACE...THIS CONVECTION WILL HAVE AN ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR
   HAIL OR MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   HOWEVER...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS WEAKER THAN IN AREAS FARTHER NORTH
   AND FOR THIS REASON THE STORMS ARE DEPENDENT ON SFC HEATING. THE
   CONVECTION WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS SFC TEMPS COOL AND THE ATMOSPHERE
   STABILIZES.
   
   
   ...OH/PA/NY...
   
   A NARROW LINE OF STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ALONG A
   FRONTAL ZONE FROM NRN NY EXTENDING SWWD TO NCNTRL OH. INSTABILITY IS
   WEAK ALONG THE FRONT WHERE LIFTED INDICES RANGE FROM 0 TO -2 C. THE
   CONVECTION IS BEING SUPPORTED BY FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND STRONG
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO THE
   NORTH. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STRONG AND THE LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WILL
   HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   THE BEST THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE WILL BE OVER NE OH AND NW PA WHERE
   THE INSTABILITY IS SLIGHTLY GREATER. AS CONVERGENCE WEAKENS ALONG
   THE FRONT LATE THIS EVENING AND THE INSTABILITY DECREASES...THE
   SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DECREASE.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 04/20/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0600Z