SPC AC 230052
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0752 PM CDT THU APR 22 2004
   
   VALID 230100Z - 231200Z
   
   THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE
   LIT 45 NNW HOT 10 N PGO 15 SSE MLC 30 NW MLC 10 NNW MKO 35 NW FYV 25
   SE UMN 25 SW UNO 40 W ARG 45 NNE LIT.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW
   SZL 35 SW JEF 30 NW MDH 10 WNW OWB 35 N BWG 35 E BWG 25 W CSV 20 NE
   HSV 35 ESE TUP 25 NNW GLH TXK 40 NE DAL 45 NW MWL 50 SSW SPS 25 SSE
   FSI 25 NNE FSI 30 E CSM 35 NE AMA 40 SSE EHA 10 NW LBL 35 N END 15 E
   PNC 25 NNW BVO 10 S CNU 55 ENE CNU 60 SSW SZL.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE ACY 15 ESE LYH
   10 SSE GAD 15 NNW CBM 25 NE ELD 45 ENE DAL 55 NE ABI 30 SSE LTS 25
   WNW LTS 40 SSE AMA 40 E ABQ 25 NE GUP 85 NNE INW 25 SSE BCE 50 WSW
   MLF 40 NE ELY 60 NNE ENV 45 E MLD 45 SW LAR 35 S LIC 35 WSW RSL 30
   NNW SZL 20 WSW HUF 25 NE DAY 20 ENE FKL BOS.
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN OK AND NWRN AR...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE TX/OK PNHDLS EWD
   ACROSS OK/AR/SRN MO/WRN TN AND KY/NRN MS AND AL...
   
   ...NORTHEAST OK TO AR/MO OZARKS...
   INTENSE CONVECTION CONTINUES NEAR SUB-SYNOPTIC LOWS...AND ALONG
   INVERTED TROUGH AXIS ACROSS NERN OK THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL STORMS
   HAVE ERUPTED ALONG/NORTH OF A NEARLY STATIONARY WARM FRONT NEAR THE
   AR/MO BORDER. FORCING FOR ASCENT AND INFLOW OF ABUNDANT INSTABILITY
   NEAR AND ALONG THESE FEATURES SHOULD MAINTAIN VIGOROUS TSTM ACTIVITY
   WELL INTO TONIGHT ACROSS ERN OK...NRN AR...AND SRN MO. TORNADO AND
   VERY LARGE HAIL THREAT APPEARS MAXIMIZED OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS
   WITH CELLS DEVELOPING ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NORTH OF
   FSM SEWD THROUGH LIT AREA...AS WELL AS ALONG PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FRONT
   ACROSS SRN MO.
   
   IT IS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT HOW CURRENTLY CELLULAR CONVECTIVE MODE
   WILL EVOLVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY GIVEN NEARLY
   UNIDIRECTIONAL ALIGNMENT OF MOST OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES WITH THE
   MEAN LAYER FLOW. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS TO SUGGEST
   THE DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST ONE MCS TRACKING EWD ACROSS NERN AR AND
   THE MO BOOTHEEL THROUGH 23/12Z...PERHAPS ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE
   WAVE TRACKING EAST ALONG THE STATIONARY/WARM FRONT. IN
   ADDITION...EITHER REPEAT OR GRADUALLY BACKBUILDING STORMS ARE
   POSSIBLE ACROSS ERN OK...AND PERHAPS WRN AR...AS LLJ INTENSIFIES
   OVERNIGHT AND RESULTS IN STRONGER MESOSCALE FORCING REFOCUSING ALONG
   THE SRN EDGE OF CONVECTIVELY INDUCED COLD POOL. SEVERE WEATHER
   POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP/PERSIST GIVEN
   THESE SCENARIOS.
   
   ...NORTH TX...
   STEADY-STATE BACKBUILDING SUPERCELL ACROSS CLAY AND MONTAGUE
   COUNTIES OF NORTH TX APPEARS TO BE ANCHORED NEAR DRYLINE/COLD FRONT
   INTERSECTION WITH NEARLY IDEAL SR INFLOW OF HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIR.
   INCREASING INHIBITION SHOULD BEGIN TO NEGATIVELY IMPACT UPDRAFT
   STRENGTH BUT PROBABLY NOT BEFORE A COUPLE MORE LARGE HAIL
   EVENTS...AND PERHAPS EVEN A BRIEF TORNADO.
   
   ...TX/OK PNHDLS/NORTHWEST OK LATE...
   DESPITE STABLE/DRY BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT...VERY
   STEEP LAPSE RATES...DEEP ASCENT AND MOISTENING WILL SPREAD NEWD OUT
   OF NM LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE
   FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS
   ELEVATED TSTMS ROOTED IN THE 800-700MB LAYER. FCST LAPSE
   RATES/INSTABILITY AND SHEAR APPEAR TO SUPPORT LARGE HAIL WITH THIS
   ACTIVITY AND STORMS MAY EXTEND FROM THE TX/OK PNHDLS TO NWRN OK
   THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 04/23/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0600Z