SPC AC 230548
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1248 AM CDT FRI APR 23 2004
   
   VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
   
   THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW
   FTW 25 WSW SEP 30 E SJT 25 WNW SJT 35 ESE BGS 65 WNW ABI 65 S CDS 35
   S LTS 25 NNE SPS 50 SW ADM 30 NW FTW.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW
   P07 20 NE MAF 55 SSE LBB 40 SE AMA 60 W GAG 25 NNW GAG 50 SSW P28 20
   ESE END 30 SW TUL 10 N MKO 20 SE FYV 30 SSW HRO 55 NNW LIT 10 ENE
   LIT 35 W PBF 35 NNE TXK 15 SSW PRX 30 ENE DAL 40 NNW ACT 35 SSE BWD
   40 NE JCT 45 SSW JCT 30 SE DRT.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N HSE 10 SW CLT 35
   SW TCL 35 N MCB 35 WSW 7R4 ...CONT... 90 SSE MRF 40 W P07 MAF 40 S
   LBB 30 ESE CVS 20 NNW ALM 50 NNE SAD 50 S FLG 60 SSE PGA 35 S CNY 30
   WSW COS 30 WSW CNK 45 N SGF 25 W MDH 20 S LUK 35 S HLG 35 NE CXY 25
   ENE NEL.
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TX
   AND EXTREME SOUTHERN OK...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF WEST-CENTRAL
   TX...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OK...AND WRN AR...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AMPLIFIED AND PROGRESSIVE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE
   OVER THE LOWER 48 STATES INTO THE WEEKEND. ACTIVE NRN STREAM FLOW
   WILL FEATURE TWO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WITH ONE MOVING FROM THE PACIFIC
   NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND THE OTHER FROM THE GREAT
   LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST. PRIMARY DISTURBANCE WITH REGARD TO SEVERE
   WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE MIDDLE/SRN STREAM UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
   SPINNING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
   EAST ACROSS CO AND NM DURING THE DAY WITH MID LEVEL WIND MAX
   ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...FROM THE UPPER RIO GRANDE
   VALLEY TO NWRN TX DURING THE FCST PERIOD. DESPITE ONLY WEAK HEIGHT
   FALLS TO THE EAST OF THE FILLING UPPER SYSTEM... STRONGLY DIFFLUENT
   MID LEVEL FLOW WILL EDGE EAST ATOP LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS AND MYRIAD
   OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
   
   ...NWRN AND WEST-CNTRL TX/SRN OK/WRN AR...
   WELL DEFINED QUASI-STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE SITUATED
   WITHIN AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AXIS FROM THE TX SOUTH PLAINS
   ENEWD ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY TO NRN AR. SUSTAINED LOW LEVEL
   ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL LIKELY PROMOTE SEVERAL
   CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
   FCST PERIOD FROM THE TX/OK PNHDLS EWD ACROSS OK TO NRN AR. ALTHOUGH
   MUCH OF THIS CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE DECOUPLED FROM SURFACE-BASED
   PARCELS...PROXIMITY TO STEEP LAPSE RATES...MODEST FORCING...AND
   POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD POCKETS OF SURFACE HEATING SUGGEST AT LEAST A
   MARGINAL HAIL/WIND HAZARD ACROSS THE NRN PART OF THE SLGT RISK AREA.
   
   
   FARTHER SOUTH...ENHANCED FRONTOGENETIC FORCING/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
   ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED FROM
   PORTIONS OF NWRN TX INTO SRN OK DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
   LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AND MODEST SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE
   TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 2000-3000
   J/KG/ AND WEAKENING INHIBITION SOUTH OF THE FRONT...AND AHEAD OF THE
   DRYLINE OVER NWRN TX. SURFACE-BASED STORM INITIATION IS LIKELY
   ACROSS THE AREA IN THE 18Z-21Z TIME FRAME. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FCST
   TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE MDT RISK AREA FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
   EVENING AND SHOULD RESULT IN NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
   HIGH WINDS. STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER RH IS
   FCST TO ENHANCE TORNADO POTENTIAL NEAR DRYLINE/FRONTAL INTERSECTION
   ...AND PERHAPS EAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM ABI AREA TO THE
   RED RIVER IN THE 21Z-00Z TIME FRAME.
   
   ADDITIONAL VIGOROUS/SEVERE CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP DURING
   THE EVENING FROM SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPROCK TO THE PECOS VALLEY
   AS LIFT ALONG/BEHIND SURGING COLD FRONT SPREADS SWD AND INTERSECTS
   RETREATING DRYLINE.
   
   ...OH VALLEY...
   SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS IS LIKELY TO BE
   MOVING INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY/WRN KY AND WRN TN EARLY IN THE DAY.
   THE COMPLEX WILL BE MARGINALLY SUSTAINED BY A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT
   WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. 
   OUTFLOW AND LIFT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP
   ESEWD INTO INCREASING SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY FROM MIDDLE TN TO
   ERN KY BY LATE MORNING AND COULD RESULT IN A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS 
   AND/OR SOME HAIL. OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO
   LIMITED AT THIS TIME TO UPGRADE TO SLGT RISK/HIGHER PROBABILITIES.
   
   ...DELMARVA...
   A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTAL WAVES ARE FCST BY THE ETA TO TRAVERSE THE
   DELMARVA REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT PRIOR TO COLD FROPA EARLY
   SATURDAY. INCREASING LOW LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH ONE OF THESE
   FRONTAL LOWS...PASSING ACROSS CHESAPEAKE BAY THIS EVENING...COUPLED
   WITH MODEST MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG...COULD RESULT IN A
   SMALL CLUSTER OF ORGANIZED TSTMS. A SMALL  SEVERE HAIL/WIND
   THREAT...OR EVEN AN ISOLD TORNADO... COULD ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY.
   IF THIS SCENARIO BECOMES MORE EVIDENT WITH ADDITIONAL DATA DURING
   THE DAY...A SMALL SLGT RISK AREA MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION IN
   LATER OUTLOOKS.
   
   ..CARBIN/CROSBIE.. 04/23/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1300Z