SPC AC 231655
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1155 AM CDT FRI APR 23 2004
   
   VALID 231630Z - 241200Z
   
   THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW
   FTW 10 W SEP 50 E SJT 40 W SJT 20 SE BGS 60 SE LBB 20 S CDS 20 SSW
   LTS 25 NNE SPS 50 SW ADM 30 NW FTW.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW
   P07 15 ESE MAF 35 SE LBB 35 SE AMA 60 W GAG 45 W P28 20 NE P28 35 N
   BVO 30 SSW JLN 40 SW UNO 30 W DYR 25 SW MEM 35 NNE TXK 40 NNW TYR 60
   SSE BWD 30 SE DRT.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E
   ORF 50 SSW RIC 25 NNE DAN 15 ENE SSU 35 ENE EKN 15 E HGR 10 E PHL 15
   SSE NEL.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N HSE 10 SW CLT 15
   E TCL 35 NNE ESF 35 WNW POE 40 S LFK 45 WNW HOU 35 N VCT 25 NW NIR
   35 NW LRD ...CONT... 85 SW P07 35 NNE FST 50 NE HOB 20 NW 4CR 80 SSW
   GNT 20 NNW INW 20 E PGA 15 SSE CNY 45 WSW EGE 30 ENE GUC 35 NNW ALS
   40 W TAD 30 NNE LHX 15 NW GLD 15 ESE MCK 40 S EAR 15 ENE CNK 10 WNW
   FLV 10 W COU 20 WSW SLO 30 WNW LUK 20 W HLG 35 W IPT 15 SSE MSV 20
   WSW BDR.
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WEST CENTRAL AND NWRN TX...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF OK...S CENTRAL KS
   AND WESTERN AND NRN TX...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF VA...MD..DE AND NJ...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SWRN U.S. WILL SLOWLY MOVE NEWD INTO CO
   DURING THE PERIOD AS STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EWD
   ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND.  A SURFACE LOW WAS OVER
   WEST CENTRAL TX WITH A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT REACHES FROM THE
   LOW NEWD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL OK AND NWRN AR...THEN CONTINUE AS A
   QUASISTATIONARY FRONT THROUGH NWRN VA AND SRN NJ.  THE GFS DEVELOPS
   THE LOW OVER WEST TX LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVES IT INTO E
   CENTRAL OK...A BIT FARTHER E THAN THE ETA MODEL.  MEANWHILE...THE
   ETA ENHANCES A SWWD MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE DELMARVA REGION
    INTERSECTING THE QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ...PARTS OF THE DELMARVA REGION...
   
   AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AT THIS TIME WITH SFC BASED CAPE
   VALUES BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG ON AN AXIS FROM NERN NC THROUGH
   THE DC AREA.  MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE TROUGH/ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAX
   IS MOVING EWD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION.  LATEST RUC MODEL
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 6.5 AND
   7C/KM ARE POSSIBLE GOING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH TEMPERATURES
   CURRENTLY  AROUND 80F AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND
   60...THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY
   SOME HAIL THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
   
   ...PARTS OF WEST TEXAS INTO SRN OK/N CENTRAL TX...
   
   SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
   TONIGHT LIFTING THE WARM FRONT NWD INTO NERN OK/NWRN AR BY 24/00Z. 
   THIS IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE LATEST ETA AND GFS SOLUTIONS. 
   MODELS INDICATE STRONG UPWARD ASCENT AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING LOW THIS
   AFTERNOON/TONIGHT AS 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET EXTENDS FROM S CENTRAL TX
   INTO ERN OK.  MEANWHILE...MOD LEVEL JET MAX OF 60-70 KT WILL EXTEND
   FROM S CENTRAL NM THROUGH NWRN OK PLACING PARTS OF W AND NW TX IN
   FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE DRYLINE. 
   AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH SBCAPE
   EXPECTED TO BE 1500-2500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS COMBINED WITH
   FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR WITH HELICITY AROUND 250 M2/S2 INDICATES
   FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
   TONIGHT.
   
   BOTH MODELS SUPPORT STRONG COLD FRONTAL PUSH SEWD ACROSS OK/TX
   TONIGHT ENHANCING ASCENT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.  HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE LATER
   THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
   
   ..MCCARTHY.. 04/23/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 2000Z