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Apr-25-2004 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
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2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
      
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   SPC AC 252157
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 2
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0457 PM CDT SUN APR 25 2004
   
   VALID 252000Z - 261200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE
   BUF 30 ENE BFD 45 N SHD 30 SSE CHO 50 ESE LYH 20 NE DAN 30 SSW PSK
   40 E TRI 45 NNE TYS 55 ESE BWG 15 WNW LEX 50 SE DAY 35 ENE FDY 10
   WSW LAN 35 WNW MBS 35 ESE HTL 40 E OSC.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW
   LBL 40 E CSM 40 SSE SPS 25 ENE ABI 40 SE LBB 10 NW PVW 50 NNW TCC 40
   E RTN 45 NNE CAO 30 SW LBL.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE EWN 10 S FAY
   20 NNW CAE 55 E MCN 10 S ABY 30 SSE CEW ...CONT... 70 SSW MRF 25 WNW
   INK 25 W SAF 45 ESE DRO 20 NNE ALS 25 NW LAA 30 WNW GCK 40 E OKC 20
   ENE TPL 30 S ELD 40 W HOP 20 SE IND 40 SW SBN 25 E RFD 20 ENE MSN 25
   SSE IMT 75 NE MQT ...CONT... 15 E MSS 20 S GON.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW GFK 45 WSW DLH
   35 W MSP 30 NNE FSD 45 NE VTN 10 SSE PHP 35 SE BIS 30 WNW GFK.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN NM SEWD INTO WRN N
   TX...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND
   VICINITY...
   
   CORRECTED FOR SLIGHT RISK AREAS ON CATEGORICAL GRAPHIC
   
   ...NERN NM SEWD INTO SWRN OK / WRN N TX...
   THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY ACROSS NERN NM...AND
   HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST HOUR ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE WHERE
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #121 HAS BEEN ISSUED.  
   
   DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE...COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES / STEEP LAPSE
   RATES ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX MOVING SEWD ACROSS SERN CO / NERN NM
   AND DAYTIME HEATING HAS RESULTED IN MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION.  MOST
   FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS EXIST ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE / SWRN
   OK...WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ARE INDICATED ALONG WITH
   500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE.
   
   MID-LEVEL FLOW NEAR 40 KT SOUTH OF APPROACHING VORT MAX IS
   CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED / ROTATING
   UPDRAFTS.  THIS COMBINED WITH COLD MID-LEVEL AIR SUGGESTS A THREAT
   FOR LARGE HAIL -- WHICH SHOULD SPREAD SEWD WITH TIME INTO SWRN OK /
   WRN N TX THROUGH THIS EVENING. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM
   INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO SWOMCD #0477.
   
   SEVERE THREAT SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING / OVERNIGHT
   WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT STORMS MAY PERSIST THROUGH
   MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE WRN HALF OF TX.
   
   ...UPPER OH VALLEY AND VICINITY...
   MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS INDICATED ATTM AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH
   / WITHIN SURFACE WARM SECTOR BOUNDED BY COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
   LOWER MI SWWD INTO WRN TN AND WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS THE
   GREAT LAKES AND INTO SWRN VA / NC.  THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REMAINED WEAK
   ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THUS FAR...BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
   FAIRLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SUGGESTS THAT LOCALLY DAMAGING
   WINDS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH A FEW
   OF THE STRONGER STORMS / STORM CLUSTERS.  THREAT SHOULD DECREASE
   THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
   
   ..GOSS.. 04/25/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0100Z
        
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