SPC AC 252157
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 2
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0457 PM CDT SUN APR 25 2004
VALID 252000Z - 261200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE
BUF 30 ENE BFD 45 N SHD 30 SSE CHO 50 ESE LYH 20 NE DAN 30 SSW PSK
40 E TRI 45 NNE TYS 55 ESE BWG 15 WNW LEX 50 SE DAY 35 ENE FDY 10
WSW LAN 35 WNW MBS 35 ESE HTL 40 E OSC.
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW
LBL 40 E CSM 40 SSE SPS 25 ENE ABI 40 SE LBB 10 NW PVW 50 NNW TCC 40
E RTN 45 NNE CAO 30 SW LBL.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE EWN 10 S FAY
20 NNW CAE 55 E MCN 10 S ABY 30 SSE CEW ...CONT... 70 SSW MRF 25 WNW
INK 25 W SAF 45 ESE DRO 20 NNE ALS 25 NW LAA 30 WNW GCK 40 E OKC 20
ENE TPL 30 S ELD 40 W HOP 20 SE IND 40 SW SBN 25 E RFD 20 ENE MSN 25
SSE IMT 75 NE MQT ...CONT... 15 E MSS 20 S GON.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW GFK 45 WSW DLH
35 W MSP 30 NNE FSD 45 NE VTN 10 SSE PHP 35 SE BIS 30 WNW GFK.
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN NM SEWD INTO WRN N
TX...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND
VICINITY...
CORRECTED FOR SLIGHT RISK AREAS ON CATEGORICAL GRAPHIC
...NERN NM SEWD INTO SWRN OK / WRN N TX...
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY ACROSS NERN NM...AND
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST HOUR ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE WHERE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #121 HAS BEEN ISSUED.
DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE...COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES / STEEP LAPSE
RATES ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX MOVING SEWD ACROSS SERN CO / NERN NM
AND DAYTIME HEATING HAS RESULTED IN MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION. MOST
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS EXIST ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE / SWRN
OK...WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ARE INDICATED ALONG WITH
500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE.
MID-LEVEL FLOW NEAR 40 KT SOUTH OF APPROACHING VORT MAX IS
CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED / ROTATING
UPDRAFTS. THIS COMBINED WITH COLD MID-LEVEL AIR SUGGESTS A THREAT
FOR LARGE HAIL -- WHICH SHOULD SPREAD SEWD WITH TIME INTO SWRN OK /
WRN N TX THROUGH THIS EVENING. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM
INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO SWOMCD #0477.
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING / OVERNIGHT
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT STORMS MAY PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE WRN HALF OF TX.
...UPPER OH VALLEY AND VICINITY...
MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS INDICATED ATTM AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH
/ WITHIN SURFACE WARM SECTOR BOUNDED BY COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
LOWER MI SWWD INTO WRN TN AND WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO SWRN VA / NC. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REMAINED WEAK
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THUS FAR...BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
FAIRLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SUGGESTS THAT LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH A FEW
OF THE STRONGER STORMS / STORM CLUSTERS. THREAT SHOULD DECREASE
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
..GOSS.. 04/25/2004
...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0100Z
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