SPC AC 300055
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 PM CDT THU APR 29 2004
VALID 300100Z - 301200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W
CNU 15 S BVO 55 NW MLC 15 ESE DUA 20 NNW DAL 65 NNE ABI 25 SW CDS 40
ENE AMA 20 S LBL DDC 45 S RSL 40 ENE HUT 40 W CNU.
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW
GPT 25 NNW MSY 35 SSE HEZ 30 N HEZ 15 SSE GLH 35 NNW GWO 15 WSW TUP
10 NNE CBM 45 E MEI 55 N PNS 25 SE CEW.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S LCH 20 WNW ESF
25 NNE MLU 30 ENE PBF 20 NNE LIT 40 NNW HOT 45 NW TXK 35 SW PRX 30
SSW FTW 40 WSW BWD 25 WSW SJT 15 E MAF 10 SE LBB 45 WNW PVW 25 S TCC
65 W CVS 45 NE ALM 20 SE TCS 20 NNW SAD 30 NNE PHX 50 SSE IGM 20 ENE
LAS 50 NW P38 50 S ENV 15 SW EVW 40 E RKS 30 W LAR 20 E FCL 40 S LIC
35 E LAA 40 NNE GCK 30 WNW LNK LSE 30 SSW ESC ...CONT... 10 NNW CLE
10 E CMH 25 NNW JKL 40 NNE TYS 60 NW AND 50 ENE MCN 30 N AYS 10 ESE
JAX.
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF MS INTO THE FL
PANHANDLE...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF OK...NRN
TX...SRN KS...
...CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...
STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR CONTINUES WITHIN BROAD WARM ADVECTION ZONE
FROM THE FL PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL MS. SCATTERED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH A GENERAL ENEWD
MOVEMENT OBSERVED AS LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFTS ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES. TWO MAIN CONVECTIVE MODES HAVE EVOLVED: THE FIRST IS
FOCUSED ALONG MARINE SURGE IN AN EAST-WEST FASHION ACROSS SRN AL/FL
PANHANDLE...WHILE THE SECOND IS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER WRN/CNTRL MS. EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING AND STORM SCALE INTERACTIONS BLEED OFF
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. THIS IS SLOWLY OCCURRING WITH A GRADUAL
SHIFT NEWD EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED TORNADOES
AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...
FRONTAL SURGE DOWN THE HIGH PLAINS HAS FORCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ZONE CONSIDERABLY FARTHER SOUTHEAST THAN EARLIER MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTED. RESULTANT STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WAS CONFINED TO
THE TX SOUTH PLAINS INTO NWRN TX WHERE ONGOING MCS CLUSTER APPEARS
TO BE DECOUPLING AND SHIFTING EWD ALONG THE RED RIVER. WITH LLJ
EXPECTED TO FOCUS INTO CENTRAL OK BY 06Z...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT
IMMEDIATELY DIMINISH...WITH OTHER STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE
NORTH OF THIS ACTIVITY WITHIN DEEPER WARM ADVECTION ZONE LATER.
LARGE HAIL SHOULD BECOME THE PREDOMINANT MODE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.
..DARROW.. 04/30/2004
...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0600Z
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