SPC AC 301259
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0759 AM CDT FRI APR 30 2004
   
   VALID 301300Z - 011200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW
   DRT 35 SE MAF 60 E LBB 30 WSW CSM 40 W END 25 S CNU 20 NW TBN 10 NW
   STL 40 NE UIN 25 NNE PIA 30 ESE MMO 40 NNW LAF 30 SSE HUF 20 NW CGI
   25 SE HOT 30 N LFK 50 SW CLL 65 W COT.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S HUL 30 NW AUG 10
   ESE RUT 10 SE PSF 35 ENE ISP ...CONT... 25 ENE ACY 20 SE BWI 30 N
   RIC 15 S RDU 20 ENE CRE ...CONT... 40 SW PSX NIR 40 NW ALI 15 NW LRD
   ...CONT... 35 SSE P07 45 WNW FST 35 NE ELP 75 ESE SOW 35 SSW SOW 60
   SSW INW 55 E GCN 45 SSE U17 35 NE 4BL 35 N MTJ 35 SSE 4FC 15 ENE COS
   15 NE LHX 40 NE LAA 40 SW MCK 40 NNW CNK 15 SW OMA 50 WSW ALO 15 SSW
   LNR 15 SE APN.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM TX ACROSS THE OZARKS TO
   THE MIDWEST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A POSITIVE TILT LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S.
   THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS
   THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY...AND A CLOSED LOW...NOW OVER THE
   FOUR CORNERS AREA...OPENS INTO A WEAK TROUGH AND SPREADS SEWD TO
   NM/WEST TX THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. DEEP LAYER S/SWLY FLOW WILL
   PERSIST TO THE EAST OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH AXIS WITH A
   QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE ALIGNED WITH THIS FLOW FROM NWRN TX TO
   THE GREAT LAKES. WEAK PERTURBATIONS...SOME CONVECTIVELY
   INDUCED...WILL TRAVEL ATOP/ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE SRN
   PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND AID TSTM DEVELOPMENT
   AND INTENSIFICATION. AS FOUR CORNERS UPPER TROUGH EDGES INTO NM/WEST
   TX LATER TONIGHT...COMBINATION OF CONVECTION AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT
   SHOULD FORCE THE DEEPER FRONTAL ZONE SEWD INTO SCNTRL TX.
   
   DOWNSTREAM FROM THE TROUGHS AND FRONTAL ZONE...STRONG GULF MOISTURE
   FLUX AND CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY ACROSS
   THE DEEP SOUTH WAS SUSTAINING A LARGE MCS ACROSS SERN LA THIS
   MORNING. MEANWHILE...TRAILING PORTION OF A DEAMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE
   TROUGH MOVING OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS WAS RESULTING IN A SMALLER MCS
   TRACKING INTO NRN FL.
   
   ...TX/OK TO SERN KS AND MO/AR OZARKS...
   IR IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTED THE COLDER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS MOVING SEWD
   IN AN ARC FROM SOUTH OF LBB TO NORTH OF ABI AND THEN NORTH TO THE
   RED RIVER SOUTH OF CDS. STRONG OUTFLOW AND MESOHIGH IN THE WAKE OF
   ERN OK MCS MAKES FRONTAL IDENTIFICATION COMPLICATED ACROSS CNTRL OK
   THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...DEEPER COLD AIR LIKELY REMAINS CONFINED TO
   WRN OK AT THIS TIME. SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE ATOP
   CONVECTIVE COLD POOL ACROSS SCNTRL OK...AS WELL AS WITHIN MCV/SHORT
   WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE FROM ERN KS INTO NRN
   MO.
   
   MUCH OF TX SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXPERIENCE
   STRONG HEATING AND RAPID DESTABILIZATION TODAY WITH MLCAPE CLIMBING
   INTO THE 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS CNTRL AND NCNTRL TX BY EARLY
   AFTERNOON. LATEST 09Z RUC POINT FCST SOUNDINGS APPEAR TO HAVE A
   DECENT HANDLE ON BOTH FRONTAL POSITION...NEAR ABI BY EARLY
   AFTERNOON...AND WARM SECTOR CAP. LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO
   REMAIN SOMEWHAT WEAK TO NEUTRAL UNTIL LATE WHEN UPPER TROUGH EDGES
   EAST FROM NM. THEREFORE... SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION
   SHOULD BE MOST LIKELY INVOF COLD FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION...NEAR
   ABI AREA...AND PERHAPS ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NWRN TX
   ACROSS THE RED RIVER INTO SERN OK. BOTH DIRECTIONAL AND DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THIS REGION WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH THE
   POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A COUPLE OF
   TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IF LONGER-LIVED CELLS CAN TRACK
   FAVORABLY ALONG FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND INGEST GREATER
   MESO/STORM SCALE BAROCLINIC VORTICITY. GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
   FRONTAL/OUTFLOW POSITIONS...AND LACK OF STRONGER LARGE SCALE
   SUPPORT...WILL HOLD OFF ON AN UPGRADE TO MDT RISK PROBABILITIES AT
   THIS TIME. HOWEVER...AN UPGRADE MAY BE NECESSARY LATER THIS MORNING
   OR DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH TX AND SRN OK.
   
   ADDITIONAL HAIL STORMS ARE LIKELY NORTH AND WEST AND ALONG THE COLD
   FRONT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIFTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY INTO A
   REGION OF VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR. LARGE
   SCALE FORCING...IN THE FORM OF INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL
   FLOW...SHOULD MAINTAIN THIS THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS MUCH
   OF OK...INTO THE OZARKS.
   
   ...MIDWEST...
   CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH MCS ACROSS NERN KS INTO MO
   ATTM WILL LIKELY LIMIT AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH OF NRN MO
   TODAY. HOWEVER...DOWNSTREAM WARM SECTOR AIRMASS...FROM MO BOOTHEEL
   ACROSS IL...WILL HAVE SOME TIME TO DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF THE ONGOING
   MCS. LIFT AND OUTFLOW FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THIS
   INCREASING INSTABILITY LATE TODAY INTO EVENING AND SHOULD SUPPORT
   SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND AND HAIL.
   
   ...GULF COAST/SOUTH...
   LARGE MULTICELL TSTM CLUSTER ACROSS MS DELTA THIS MORNING IS MOST
   LIKELY LINKED TO WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL
   MOISTURE SURGE/ISENTROPIC LIFT OFF THE NRN GULF. AIRMASS AHEAD OF
   THIS CONVECTION WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST AND BECOME INCREASINGLY
   UNSTABLE WITH HEATING OF THE DAY. WEAK FORCING AND SHEAR SHOULD
   OFFSET A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. HOWEVER...NUMEROUS 
   MULTICELLS STORMS COULD PRODUCE A COUPLE OF WIND/HAIL REPORTS.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 04/30/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1630Z