SPC AC 301947
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0247 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2004
   
   VALID 302000Z - 011200Z
   
   THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW
   ACT 25 SE BWD 35 SSE ABI 10 E ABI 40 NE ABI 10 ESE SPS 30 W ADM DUA
   30 SW PRX 25 WNW ACT.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW
   DRT 35 N SJT 70 WSW SPS 25 SSW OKC 20 WNW TUL 25 W JLN 30 WSW COU 10
   S UIN 40 NE UIN 25 NNE PIA 30 ESE MMO 45 S SBN 25 WNW MIE 50 N SDF
   10 NNW HOP 35 S PBF 15 NNW AUS 65 W COT.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S PBI 60 WSW MIA
   ...CONT... 40 SW PSX 15 NW LRD ...CONT... 35 SW P07 15 ESE FST 15 SW
   MAF 35 N GDP 15 NE SVC 80 E SOW 60 WSW FMN 45 WSW MTJ 30 SSE CAG 20
   SSW FCL 15 NE LHX 20 E GCK CID 25 SSE OSC ...CONT... 25 ENE ACY 30
   WNW SBY 25 ESE RIC 30 NE RWI 15 ENE ILM ...CONT... 50 WNW 3B1 20 SW
   ORH 25 E BDR.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNW DVL 20 SE DVL
   40 SE JMS 45 N ABR 35 NW ABR 15 NW MBG Y22 35 SW DIK 15 WSW SDY 70
   NNE OLF.
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER
   PORTIONS OF NWRN/N-CNTRL TX INTO FAR S-CNTRL OK...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM
   THE OH VALLEY SWWD INTO TX...
   
   ...TX/OK...
   COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR JLN SWWD TO JUST S OF OKC INTO WRN TX S
   OF BGS AS OF 19Z WITH ATTENDANT RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EWD ALONG
   RED RIVER INTO W-CNTRL AR. MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY
   DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FROM CNTRL TX INTO S-CNTRL OK
   COUPLED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES
   OF 2000-3000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON /PER 18Z FWD SOUNDING/ E OF COLD
   FRONT AS FAR N AS S-CNTRL/SERN OK. SUPERCELLS ARE ALREADY IN
   PROGRESS ALONG RED RIVER E OF SPS AND NE OF ABI WITH ADDITIONAL SVR
   TSTM DEVELOPMENT LIKELY ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND SWWD ALONG COLD
   FRONT. STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH JET STREAK
   ROTATING AROUND UPPER TROUGH OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION WILL CONTINUE
   TO PROVIDE MORE THAN ENOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS WITH
   VERY LARGE HAIL. GREATEST TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST INVOF RESIDUAL
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG RED RIVER WHERE LOCALLY ENHANCED SOURCES OF
   NEAR-SURFACE VORTICITY/AND BUOYANCY SHOULD CO-EXIST.  
   
   FARTHER N...ELEVATED TSTMS HAVE SLOWLY INCREASED ACROSS WRN OK ALONG
   LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL JET
   STREAK LIFTING NEWD THROUGH THE AREA. MUCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG FOR
   PARCELS BASED AROUND 750MB SUGGESTS THAT THESE STORMS WILL POSE A
   MARGINAL HAIL THREAT. AS THIS FORCING CONTINUES TO SPREAD
   EWD...EXPECT ADDITIONAL SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT ALONG COLD FRONT
   OVER E-CNTRL INTO NERN OK WHERE AIRMASS RECOVERY IS IN PROGRESS IN
   WAKE OF MORNING MCS. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE
   PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.
   
   UPSCALE EVOLUTION INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OVER
   PORTIONS OF SERN OK/WRN AR INTO NERN AND CNTRL TX WITH A CONTINUED
   THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
   
   ...MO/AR NEWD INTO OH VALLEY...
   CONVECTION ON LEADING EDGE OF MCS OVER E-CNTRL MO SWD NERN AR HAS
   INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS LEADING EDGE OF COLD
   POOL ENCOUNTERS DESTABILIZING DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS OVER SERN MO INTO
   SRN/CNTRL IL. ALTHOUGH TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
   STRONG /PER REGIONAL PROFILERS AND VWPS/...FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD
   OF CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORTICITY MAX OVER CNTRL MO COUPLED WITH
   POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A WIND THREAT WITH
   SMALLER-SCALE EMBEDDED BOWS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERE
   THREAT SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING WITH
   COOLING/STABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY-LAYER.
   
   ...LA...
   TSTMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WRN EDGE OF
   WWD-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ORIGINATING FROM NOCTURNAL MCS OVER THE
   N-CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO. HERE...TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS
   IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ARE RESULTING IN MLCAPES OF 1000-2000
   J/KG. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND/OR STRONG WIND GUST WILL BE
   POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...WWD MOVEMENT OF BOUNDARY SHOULD
   QUICKLY UNDERCUT ANY ORGANIZING DEVELOPMENT.
   
   ..MEAD.. 04/30/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0100Z