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May- 8-2004 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
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2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
      
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   SPC AC 081950
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0250 PM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004
   
   VALID 082000Z - 091200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW
   BUF 45 W ELM 25 W IPT 20 NE AOO 25 SSE PIT 30 SW MFD 25 NNW MIE 15
   ENE PIA 20 S OTM 30 SE OMA 40 WNW BIE 45 SW EAR 20 ENE LBF 30 WNW
   VTN 55 SW RAP 15 W 4BQ 50 NNE GGW 55 NNE ISN 65 N DVL 40 SSE JMS 25
   SW AXN 20 ENE EAU MTW 45 W MBS 55 N MTC.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW SYR 20 NNW MSV
   15 NE JFK ...CONT... 10 SSE ACY MRB 25 NNE SHD 15 N LYH DAN 20 SSE
   EWN ...CONT... 35 NW ELO 30 WNW RHI 50 SSW IMT 25 W TVC 10 W OSC.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W ELP 10 ENE SVC
   30 NNW SAD 35 SW SOW 20 E SOW 40 S GNT 10 WNW SAF 30 ENE TAD 25 N
   LAA 40 SE SNY 45 W SHR 30 WSW DLN 70 NNW 4LW 45 ESE OTH 20 N OTH.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE DRT 35 W BWD
   15 ENE SPS 45 NNE MKO 20 ENE FYV 50 SSE HRO 50 ESE SHV 35 ESE POE 20
   WSW 7R4.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE CHS 35 W CHS 15
   NNW JAX 35 NNW CTY 30 N VLD 20 SW AGS 40 WNW AND 30 NNE HTS 30 SE
   DAY 15 WSW IND 25 NNW HUF 40 NE MKC 25 E RSL 60 N CDS 60 WSW SJT 30
   ESE P07.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF NRN /CENTRAL PLAINS
   EWD INTO NRN OH VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES REGION......
   
   ...ERN NEB EWD INTO NRN OH VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES REGION...
   WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL NEB EWD ACROSS IA INTO EXTREME SRN
   LWR MI.  STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DAYTIME HEATING IS 
   RESULTING IN MLCAPES FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR
   ...WITH THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY LOCATED IN IA. THOUGH THE UPPER
   LEVEL FORCING IS WEAK...THE VICINITY OF THE E/W FRONTAL ZONE COUPLED
   WITH STRONG INSTABILITY SUPPORTS SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS
   DEVELOPING IN IA THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
   NOT THAT STRONG...THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
   SHOULD SUPPORT LARGE HAIL. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONGEAL INTO
   AN MCS THIS EVENING AND SHIFT EWD ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. DRY AIR
   IN THE MID LAYERS AND RELATIVELY STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW
   ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS THE THREAT SHOULD EVOLVE TO A
   DAMAGING WIND THREAT OVERNIGHT.
   
   SCATTERED HIGHER BASED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP IN NEB AS THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER HEATS AND MIXES TO THE LFC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERTED-V
   PROFILES FROM THE SURFACE TO 800 MB...SUGGESTIVE OF A DAMAGING WIND
   THREAT.
   
   ......NRN HIGH PLAINS...
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING EWD THROUGH MT. INCREASING SLY
   FLOW HAS ADVECTED 40 DEGREE DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA WITH STEEP LAPSE
   RATES RESULTING IN MLCAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG. WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER
   MOISTURE IS LIMITED...THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES... MODERATELY
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN SEVERE STORMS
   ACROSS ERN MT/WRN ND AND SD THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE STORMS
   SHOULD HAVE RELATIVELY HIGH BASES...SO THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
   DAMAGING WINDS. REFERENCE WW 162.
   
   ...CAROLINAS...
   THERE IS A VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IN THE VICINITY OF
   A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER. ALTHOUGH
   THE MID LEVELS ARE RELATIVELY COOL...RESULTING IN A MODERATELY
   UNSTABLE AIR MASS...WEAK CONVERGENCE IS LIKELY TO INHIBIT MORE THAN
   A FEW STORMS FROM DEVELOPING.
   
   ...WRN TX/NM BORDER AREA..
   SELY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE MAINTAINING MID/UPPER 50 DEWPOINTS
   ACROSS THE REGION. THE WEAK UPPER LOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL TX IS
   RESULTING IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT ...WHICH IS ENHANCING THE DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR. FULL SUNSHINE HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL INTO THE
   80S...RESULTING IN MLCAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LOW
   IN SOUTH CENTRAL TX MAY BE RESULTING IN WEAK SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE
   AREA...BUT IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ERN SLOPES
   NM/SWRN TX MTNS...HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
   HOWEVER...THE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE MAY INHIBIT MANY STORMS FROM
   DEVELOPING...HENCE THE VERY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
   
   ..IMY.. 05/08/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0100Z
        
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