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May- 9-2004 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
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2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
      
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   SPC AC 092006
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0306 PM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004
   
   VALID 092000Z - 101200Z
   
   THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW
   IWD 30 WNW LSE 40 ENE MCW 20 SE GRI 10 WSW BUB 30 ENE MHE 45 ENE ATY
   20 NE BRD 60 SW IWD.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW
   BUF 25 ESE ELM 15 ENE JFK ...CONT... 20 SE ORF 20 SSW CHO 25 SSW LYH
   CLT 25 SE AND 15 SW AHN 30 ENE RMG 15 E CHA TYS BKW EKN 15 NNE HLG
   FWA 45 ESE MMO 25 NNE UIN 10 S MKC ICT 20 SSW P28 35 E LBL 55 WSW
   GLD 15 NNW SNY AIA 20 N MHN 20 SE 9V9 25 NNW ABR 30 W INL.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DUG 20 SW SOW GNT 50
   E TAD 10 ENE LHX 45 E GUC 20 N GUC 30 S CAG RWL 30 S CPR 40 W CDR 30
   WNW VTN 9V9 40 WNW ABR 20 WNW JMS 60 N DVL ...CONT... 20 WSW MSS BID
   ...CONT... 40 N HSE 30 ESE LYH 10 NNE CAE MCN 35 NNE DHN 40 N MOB
   JAN 25 ENE GLH MEM MKL BNA LOZ HTS 20 SW PKB ZZV 30 N DAY 15 WSW MIE
   20 ENE MTO 15 WSW STL 25 N SGF 15 N FYV SHV 15 NE GLS.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N ONP 45 NNW RDM
   40 ESE RDM 50 SSW 4LW 20 SW MHS ACV.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW BUF 25 ESE ELM
   15 ENE JFK.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE END 50 ESE GAG
   40 S GAG CDS 30 N SJT 60 ENE JCT 45 E DAL 45 W MKO 35 SE PNC 15 SE
   END.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N ONP 45 NNW RDM
   40 ESE RDM 50 SSW 4LW 20 SW MHS ACV.
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS  PORTIONS OF SERN SD/NERN
   NEB/NWRN IA/CENTRAL AND SRN MN AND NWRN WI...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/CENTRAL
   PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE SRN  GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
   STATES...
   
   ...UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
   DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING EWD ACROSS S CENTRAL CANADA WITH
   ASSOCIATED BAND OF STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS LOCATED ACROSS
   THE UPPER MS VALLEY. SURFACE LOW IS MOVING INTO WRN ONTARIO WITH A
   SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT EXTENDING SWD INTO EXTREME NWRN MN/ERN SD/ NWRN
   NEB. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG HEATING HAS RESULTED IN
   MODERATE INSTABILITY. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED IN WEST
   CENTRAL MN AND SHOULD EXPAND SWWD INTO NERN NEB ALONG THE FRONT.
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KT COUPLED WITH THE MODERATE INSTABILITY
   SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL. AN
   ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE ...BUT MAINLY NEAR THE WARM
   FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL WI NWWD INTO NRN MN. STORMS
   MAY EVOLVE INTO A SEVERE MCS AND PROPAGATE ESEWD INTO THE WRN GREAT
   LAKES.
   
   CONVERGENCE IS INCREASING ACROSS SWRN NEB WHERE SURFACE WINDS HAVE
   BACKED TO SELY ACROSS WRN KS. HIGH BASED CU/CB HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
   SERN WY/SWRN NEB AND SHOULD SPREAD EWD AND INTENSIFY AS THEY
   ENCOUNTER A MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. ALL MODELS INDICATE A COMPLEX
   DEVELOPING IN WEST CENTRAL NEB AND THEN TRACKING EWD AS AN MCS
   OVERNIGHT. DESPITE THE WEAK SHEAR...THE STEEP LAPSE RATES...
   MODERATE INSTABILITY AND DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN A
   FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS TO MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEB/NRN KS WITH
   DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT...ALONG WITH SOME HAIL.
   
   ....SRN GREAT LAKES/NRN OH VALLEY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING EWD ALONG/AHEAD OF AN MCV LOCATED IN
   SRN LAKE MI. AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND SUFFICIENT DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT STORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL. REFERENCE
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 170.
   
   ...PA/DELMARVA/NJ...
   WARM FRONT IS RETURNING SLOWLY NWD WITH THE AIR MASS CONTINUING TO
   DESTABILIZE. SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN CENTRAL PA...
   THOUGH WEAK CONVERGENCE HAS LIMITED COVERAGE THUS FAR. DESPITE
   RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR...THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND RELATIVELY LARGE
   TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH WIND
   AND ISOLATED HAIL.
   
   ...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   WEAK TROUGH OVER MEXICO IS RESULTING IN NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS S/SW
   OF THE BIG BEND. SOME OF THESE STORMS SHOULD SPREAD NEWD INTO THE
   BIG BEND AREA...WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND ADEQUATE BOUNDARY LAYER
   MOISTURE EXISTS FOR A STORM OR TWO TO PRODUCT HAIL/WIND. STORMS MAY
   ALSO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE TX PANHANDLE ...BUT
   RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR AND ISOLATED NATURE OF STORMS PRECLUDES A
   SLIGHT RISK.
   
   ...APPLACHAINS...
   STEEP LAPSE RATES...STRONG HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS
   RESULTED IN STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS.
   DESPITE THE WEAK SHEAR...BRIEF SEVERE WIND/HAIL IS POSSIBLE GIVEN
   THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND DRY AIR ALOFT.
   
   ..IMY.. 05/09/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0100Z
        
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