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May-11-2004 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
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   SPC AC 111300
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0800 AM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004
   
   VALID 111300Z - 121200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW
   CMX 30 SSW MCW 30 SE LNK 45 N P28 60 NW ABI 35 NNW BGS 45 WSW LBB 40
   ESE LAA 35 SE SNY 30 W CDR 40 WSW REJ 45 SSW DIK 60 NNE DVL.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW ART 10 S HUL
   ...CONT... 20 SW WAL 15 WSW SOP 35 ESE CAE 35 ENE SAV ...CONT... 25
   SE JAX 15 S PIE ...CONT... 80 SSE MRF 10 SSE HOB 20 S AKO FCL 35 S
   CAG 30 W GJT 30 NW CDC 40 W TPH 40 W U31 OWY 55 N GGW.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN PLAINS / UPPER MS
   VALLEY SWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MAIN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN ATTM IS FORECAST TO
   STRENGTHEN WHILE MOVING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE
   PERIOD.  AS HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS...LOW NOW OVER WY
   SHOULD DEEPEN / MOVE EWD INTO THE PLAINS ALONG WITH ATTENDANT
   FRONTAL SYSTEM.  THIS LOW AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES SHOULD PROVIDE
   THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ...NRN PLAINS / UPPER MS VALLEY SWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE ATTM ACROSS THE PLAINS IN BROAD
   REGION OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH.  THESE CLUSTERS
   SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING NEWD...WHILE IN THE WAKE OF THIS CONVECTION
   AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE PLAINS.
   
   BY MID-AFTERNOON...STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP INVOF SURFACE LOW / DRYLINE
   / COLD FRONT INTERSECTION INVOF WRN SD / THE NEB PANHANDLE.  WITH
   TIME...STORMS SHOULD INCREASE / SPREAD EWD INTO MODERATELY UNSTABLE
   AIRMASS /1500 TO 2500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/.
   
   STRONGER SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD OVER THIS
   REGION AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH...AND WITH STRONG SLY LOW-LEVEL
   FLOW...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
   FOR SUPERCELLS.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE
   EXPECTED...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.
   
   OVERNIGHT...COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE NRN AND
   INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  STORMS SHOULD TREND TOWARD LINEAR
   ORGANIZATION WITH TIME...WHICH MAY INCREASE THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING
   WINDS. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH
   STORMS SPREADING AS FAR NEWD AS THE UPPER MS VALLEY / WRN GREAT
   LAKES REGION AS LOW SHIFTS RAPIDLY NEWD.
   
   ...CENTRAL TX...
   PRONOUNCED MCV IS MOVING NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL TX ATTM WITHIN BROAD
   ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION.  ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED
   THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS MOST OF THIS REGION...STORMS WILL LIKELY
   INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. 
   MODERATELY-STRONG / VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD COMBINED WITH MOIST
   LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS /NEAR 70 DEWPOINTS/ SUGGEST A THREAT FOR AN
   ISOLATED / BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO.  HOWEVER...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD
   REMAIN LIMITED SUCH THAT LONG-LIVED STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   ...OH VALLEY / SRN NEW ENGLAND AND VICINITY...
   COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THIS REGION
   TODAY...WITH AIRMASS EXPECTED TO BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE BY
   AFTERNOON.  ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE RIDGING ACROSS A LARGE
   PORTION OF THIS REGION SHOULD SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO
   SOME DEGREE...SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP. 
   ALTHOUGH GENERALLY WEAK DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS FORECAST...DEGREE
   OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS OR MARGINAL HAIL
   WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS.
   
   ..GOSS.. 05/11/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1630Z
        
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