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May-11-2004 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
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   SPC AC 111619
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1119 AM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004
   
   VALID 111630Z - 121200Z
   
   THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S
   HLC 45 N GCK 30 SSW GLD 40 NNW IML 50 ENE CDR 45 NE RAP 35 S Y22 40
   E Y22 50 NW ABR 65 S FAR 45 ENE ATY 25 SE BKX 15 SSE GRI 35 S HLC.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW
   CMX 30 SSW MCW 30 SE LNK 45 N P28 60 NW ABI 35 NNW BGS 45 WSW LBB 40
   ESE LAA 35 SE SNY 30 W CDR 40 WSW REJ 45 SSW DIK 60 NNE DVL.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE
   ALI 20 SE COT 15 WNW SAT 60 WSW TPL 35 WNW ACT 50 ENE ACT 40 WNW LFK
   15 SSE BPT.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE 63S 30 E GEG
   15 W MSO 35 WNW 3HT 70 NNE BIL 60 NNE GGW ...CONT... 80 SSE MRF 30
   SW AKO 45 E FCL 35 NNW 4FC 35 NE GJT 30 E MLF 45 NNW TPH 20 WNW NFL
   20 W BNO 30 ENE BLI.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW WAL 45 W ORF
   35 ENE FLO 25 ENE CRE.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW BUF 20 W ALB
   25 S PSM.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE JAX 25 SSE
   SRQ.
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF SD SWD THRU NEB INTO
   NWRN KS...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS REMAINDER OF HIGH PLAINS NEWD
   INTO UPPER MS VALLEY...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL AND SRN TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH WRN U.S. WITH STRONG HEIGHT FALLS MOVING EWD
   ACROSS INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AT 12Z. ASSOCIATED STRONG SURFACE LOW
   MOVING INTO WRN SD ATTM WITH SHARP COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD THRU
   SERN WY INTO SERN UT. PRONOUNCED WARM FRONT EXTENDS EWD FROM SURFACE
   LOW ALONG ND/SD BORDER ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND THEN ESEWD THRU SRN
   LOWER MI. 50-60 KT SLY LOW LEVEL JET IS RAPIDLY INCREASING MOISTURE
   NWD THRU PLAINS WITH LOW/MID 60 DEWPOINTS COMMON IN WARM SECTOR NWD
   TO WARM FRONT.
   
   WEAK SRN BRANCH S/WV TROUGH MOVING ACROSS S TX WHERE THERE IS A VERY
   MOIST/UNSTABLE SLY FLOW WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS TX COASTAL PLAINS.
   
   ...CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS...
   CURRENT MODEL RUNS ALL SUGGEST THAT THE SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO WRN
   SD WILL EVOLVE INTO AN ELONGATED LOW WITH A SECONDARY CENTER BY LATE
   THIS AFTERNOON NERN CORNER CO. RESULT WILL BE A SHARP  N/S DRY LINE
   FROM LOW IN WRN SD SWD TO ALONG CO/KS BORDER WITH AIRMASS E OF DRY
   LINE BECOMING VERY UNSTABLE.  MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG WILL BE
   COMMON IN MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR E OF DRY LINE.
   
   AS THE HEIGHT FALLS ROTATE INTO HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON...CURRENT CAP WILL WEAKEN TO ALLOW RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND JUST E OF DRY LINE AS WELL AS
   CONVERGENCE VICINITY OF E/W WARM FRONT.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXPECTED
   TO IMPROVE CONSIDERABLY BY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE DRY LINE AS
   STRONGER MID LEVEL JET DEVELOPS INTO HIGH PLAINS ALONG WITH THE
   DIURNAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL JET.
   
   SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH THE LARGE HAIL
   POTENTIAL BEING DOMINANT INITIALLY.  HOWEVER AS THE SHEAR INCREASES
   BY THIS EVENING TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY ALONG
   WITH THE DAMAGING WINDS IN DOWNBURSTS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF A
   STRONG TORNADO THIS EVENING IN THE MDT RISK AREA AS FAVORABLE SHEAR
   DEVELOPS.
   
   THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SUPERCELLS SWD
   VICINITY DRY LINE INTO TX PANHANDLE WHERE THE SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER
   BUT AIR MASS STILL VERY UNSTABLE.
   
   A SEVERE MCS IS LIKELY TO PROPAGATE EWD AFTER DARK VICINITY WARM
   FRONT AS S/WV TROUGH ROTATES NEWD INTO PLAINS.
   
   ...TX...
   REF WW 183 AND MCD 648
   THE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE SLY FLOW IN TX IS WEAKLY CAPPED.  WITH
   ONGOING STORMS AND 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET SUFFICIENT SHEAR IS AVAILABLE
   FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOS.  THIS WILL BE IN ADDITION TO
   DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH BOWS/SHORT LINES SUCH AS THE CURRENT BOW
   MOVING EWD TOWARD THE COAST N OF CRP.
   
   ...OH VALLEY EWD TO DELMARVA NJ...
   REF MCD 649
   
   AGAIN TODAY A WEAKLY CAPPED AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS COVERS
   THIS REGION TO S OF COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM WRN MA WWD
   ALONG NY/PA BORDER TO NEAR CHI.  PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE WILL BE
   PULSE SEVERE WITH SUFFICIENT MLCAPE...RANGING UPWARDS TO 2000
   J/KG...  ALONG WITH LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM FOR A MARGINAL HAIL AND
   DOWNBURST THREAT.
   
   ..HALES/BANACOS.. 05/11/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 2000Z
        
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